122
FXUS62 KFFC 301727
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WEST AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM TODAY. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHWEST GEORGIA FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM.
- DAILY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA TODAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND 100-DEGREE HEAT INDICES STICK AROUND
HEADING INTO THE JULY FOURTH WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES HIGH THROUGH GEORGIA. THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
HOT TEMPERATURES AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TODAY, EXPECT HEAT INDICES OF 106-110, MAINLY FOR THE
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA LOCATIONS. FOR THIS, A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH 8 PM. AS FOR
WEDNESDAY, SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NE, ESPECIALLY
TOWARD CENTRAL GEORGIA. THESE NE WINDS HELP TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION AND LOWER THOSE DEWPOINTS A TICK. THESE SMALL
DECREASES IN DEWPOINTS HAVE A MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE FOR HEAT
INDICES. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. HOWEVER, COUNTIES IN NW GEORGIA HAVE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR HEAT INDICES REACHING 105-109. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM FOR A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
AS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY, THE NE SURFACE WINDS
DO ADVECT IN THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TOWARD CENTRAL GEORGIA LEAVING
THE BETTER CHANCES IN WESTERN LOCATIONS. CURRENT GUIDANCE INCREASES
DCAPE OUT WITH 1000-1500 J/KG, MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, A FEW STORMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING FROM
MICROBURSTS. THE PRIMARY LOCATION FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE WESTERN
INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA WITH ABOUT A 30-45% CHANCE. FOR
WEDNESDAY, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MIGRATES NORTH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
(30-40%) FOR A TYPICAL TO STRONG THUNDERSTORM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THE KEY MESSAGES OF IMPACTFUL HEAT AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE H500 RIDGE IS STILL
PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, BUT EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE MOST
RECENT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE MAY SETUP FURTHER EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC INSTEAD OF OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR THE COMING DAYS, BUT THE
OVERALL MESSAGE OF HEAT PREVAILS. H700 MOISTURE SIGNALS ARE STILL
STRONG THIS WEEKEND OVER THE CWA. THUS, A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN POPS
REMAINS VALID DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAMES.
HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO DEGRADE SLIGHTLY AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT COULD RISE AGAIN THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. IMPACTFUL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S, AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD MEET OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL EXASPERATE HEAT RISK, AS VALUES
LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 THROUGHOUT THE FA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
GENERAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOW HIGH
INSTABILITY, POOR SHEAR, AND SOME INVERTED VS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS WILL FAVOR MORE PULSE-TYPE CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS FOR THE
COMING DAYS, WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR SEVERE STORMS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
HIGHER THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THESE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO IMPACT
OUTDOOR EVENTS ALONGSIDE THE HEAT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE FOR KATL/KCSG THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR KATL. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP THE
PROB30 GOING AS THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS TSRA. TYPICAL AFTERNOON CU
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS THROUGH 00Z PREVAIL E/SE AT KATL
AND ELSEWHERE ARE TOGGLING E/NE. EITHER WAY, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER 10KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO VRB
OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR TSRA AT KATL AS ANY
SHOWER OR TSRA THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE
AIRPORT. VCSH FOR NOW DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME, OUT OF THE NE/SE AND LIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF AFTERNOON TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
PATTERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 75 96 74 97 / 10 10 0 10
ATLANTA 78 95 77 96 / 20 20 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 71 89 70 90 / 10 40 10 40
CARTERSVILLE 77 96 76 97 / 20 20 10 20
COLUMBUS 76 95 74 95 / 20 10 0 10
GAINESVILLE 75 95 75 96 / 20 20 0 20
MACON 75 94 73 95 / 10 10 0 0
ROME 77 96 76 97 / 10 20 10 30
PEACHTREE CITY 75 94 74 95 / 20 20 10 10
VIDALIA 73 95 71 96 / 10 0 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ001>005-011-012-
019>022-025-030>037-041>050-052>061-066>074-078>086-089>098-
102>113.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ001>005-011-
012-019-020-030.
SHORT TERM...PATTERSON
LONG TERM....RANGEL
AVIATION...PATTERSON
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