879
FXUS62 KFFC 141820
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
220 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
- GRADUAL WARMING AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT HAS CHARACTERIZED THE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS GONE NOWHERE, WITH THE 12Z FFC
SOUNDING CONTINUING THE TREND OF PWATS OVER 2" (AT 2.13"). AS
SUCH, ABUNDANT SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED WITH THE BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER AND DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS WELL
AS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME PREVALENT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS HEATING INTERACTS WITH A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTWARD-MEANDERING WEAK LOW OVER
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN GRADUALLY WANE IN THE
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH A LESSER CONCERN FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED BRIEF INSTANCE OF GUSTY WINDS.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH THE
"AIR YOU CAN WEAR" 2+" PWATS PERSISTING. DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THAT SAID,
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN TODAY (IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE) AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART
FARTHER WESTWARD AND THE WEAKLY-SUPPRESSING EFFECT OF HIGH PRESSURE
NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO WORK AGAINST MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. GIVEN LESS OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, HIGHS WILL BEGIN
AN UPWARD TREND, THOUGH REMAINING LARGELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-JULY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A FAIRLY "TYPICAL" SUMMER CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR GEORGIA
RESUMES FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, FEATURING DAILY CHANCES OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PWATS MAY GRADUALLY DROP BACK BELOW 2 INCHES,
WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING HIGHLY ISOLATED
AND LOCALIZED (ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT
RECENT RAINFALL WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED). ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME, BUT DECENT CAPE (INSTABILITY) WILL BE AVAILABLE ESPECIALLY AS
SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALLOWS CLOUD COVER TO BE MORE
BROKEN WITH A BIT MORE HEATING, SO A FEW STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, PERSISTENT LONGWAVE RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO SET UP AND BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
PLACING GEORGIA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DISTURBANCES TO RIDE OVER THE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE,
BETTER FOCUSING CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT TIMES. A LARGER/STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MID- TO LATE- NEXT WEEK
MAY ALSO EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO SEND A COOL FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH DRIER, LESS HUMID CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
ARE NOT YET CLEAR AT THIS RANGE.
A WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOW- TO MID-90S BY FRIDAY,
HOLDING THERE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ONLY COOLING OFF INTO THE 70S, WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT-RELATED ALERTS DURING THIS PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ATLANTA METRO WHERE OUR CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO NUDGE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT
TIMES. DAY TO DAY APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON
DEGREE OF DAILY CLOUD AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AFTER
00-02Z. CIGS WILL LARGELY IMPROVE TO BKN VFR IN THE 3.5 TO 5 KFT
RANGE OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND THEN IFR BY 06-08Z. LIFR CIGS ARE
FAVORED AFTER 09-11Z WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TOWARD MVFR BY 15Z. SCT
SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
E AT 6-10 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING, NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB
OVERNIGHT, AND SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 69 87 71 91 / 40 30 10 10
ATLANTA 71 86 72 89 / 40 40 10 40
BLAIRSVILLE 65 83 66 86 / 10 40 10 50
CARTERSVILLE 70 87 70 89 / 30 40 20 40
COLUMBUS 71 89 72 90 / 40 30 20 40
GAINESVILLE 69 86 71 90 / 30 40 10 20
MACON 70 87 71 90 / 40 30 10 30
ROME 69 86 70 89 / 30 40 20 50
PEACHTREE CITY 69 86 70 88 / 40 40 10 40
VIDALIA 71 90 73 93 / 40 30 20 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SMITH
AVIATION...RW
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