898
FXUS62 KFFC 160541
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
141 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND,
RETURNING HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 IN SOME AREAS BY
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
EXPECT A BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS THE AREA RETURNS TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY POPPING ON THE RADAR
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUBBLE AGAIN THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
AND WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET. THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE GARDEN-VARIETY
STORMS, THEY ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S TODAY
SHOULD WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS IN A TRANSITIONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE
MID LEVEL UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID WEST/NORTHEAST HEAT
ELONGATING AND SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE SE COAST. AS IT DOES, THE NE
GULF BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE AND THE
ELONGATED EASTERN RIDGE ALLOWING A TUT LOW FEATURE TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER FL AND THE NE GULF. THE FEATURE IS MOST NOTICEABLE IN
THE FCST PWAT FIELDS AND BECOMES MORE PREVALENT IN THE 700 TO 500 MB
FLOW AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TRANSITION INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN WITH TIME THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOK LIKE
HOTTEST DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST HI VALUES WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING
100-105. EAST CENTRAL GA MAY REQUIRE A HT ADV ON FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST HI VALUES PEAKING 105-108.
FRIDAY ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EXTENDED...FOR
NOW AT LEAST. COMBINATION OF HIGHER MAXT AND TD YIELD A SLIGHTLY
MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION OPPORTUNITY ACROSS THE AREA. POPS REFLECT THAT WITH 45-70
PCT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE IN THE NE
GULF STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE...BUT THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS SUITE BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW.
REGARDLESS, AS(OR IF) THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS THERE IS A HINT THAT
LOWER PWAT AIR COULD GET ADVECTED IN FROM THE NE THUS CAPPING THE
CONVECTION A BIT GOING INTO SUNDAY AND BEYOND..PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. BUT NOT ALL SOLUTIONS
ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS HENCE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WX
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
ONE THING TO MENTION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NE GULF UPPER LOW
IS THAT NHC HAS NOW OUTLOOKED THAT AREA WITH A 20% PROB OF TC
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ECM SUITE IS RUNNING 40-50%
PROB TC DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REGION. REGARDLESS, ANY DEVELOPMENT,
EVEN WEAK, WITHIN THAT REGION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE OVERALL
FORECAST IN THE SUNDAY - TUESDAY PERIOD IN PARTICULAR....POSSIBLY IN
A POSITIVE WAY IF DRIER AIR CAN BE ADVECTED IN FROM THE NE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS (GENERALLY FEW-SCT CIGS AT 3-5KFT) EXP THRU
THE TAF PD WITH A CHC OF BKN MVFR THRU DAYBREAK FOR RYY/AHN. ISOLD
TSRA PSBL DURING THE AFTN, WITH BEST WINDOW FOR IMPACTS FROM
19-23Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W SIDE AT 5-10KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 73 94 73 92 / 10 40 10 40
ATLANTA 74 91 74 90 / 10 40 10 40
BLAIRSVILLE 68 86 68 85 / 10 70 10 70
CARTERSVILLE 72 91 73 91 / 10 50 10 50
COLUMBUS 74 92 75 92 / 20 40 10 60
GAINESVILLE 74 93 74 91 / 10 50 10 40
MACON 72 92 73 91 / 10 40 20 40
ROME 72 91 72 90 / 10 50 10 60
PEACHTREE CITY 72 91 72 91 / 10 40 10 50
VIDALIA 74 95 74 94 / 10 40 20 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...96
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