655
FXUS62 KFFC 161830
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND,
SUPPORTING A RETURN TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS
FOR SOME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE INTRUSION OF A MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF AT THE SURFACE, LOCKING AN UNSEASONABLY HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH NO MEANINGFUL SYNOPTIC OR MESOSCALE FEATURES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY
TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO FRIDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING BROADER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST,
DRIVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (40-60%).
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK'S END, IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY, AND JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
BEGINNING THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK SUNDAY MORNING, TWO MAIN FEATURES
DEFINE THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING OUT OF THE TROPICS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FL
PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE IS MOST VISIBLE ON THE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY,
BUT CLUSTERING ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE SOME MODEL COHESION IN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE (STRONGEST IN THE ENS ENSEMBLE, BUT STILL
RESOLVED BY GFS AS WELL). THE SECOND FEATURE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DIVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO WAVE FEATURES COME INTO PHASE WITH EACH
OTHER SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
THAT SAID, THE MAIN PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE WARM/HOT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES VALUES BETWEEN 95
AND 105. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEARLY
EVERY DAY, THOUGH THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST RESIDES.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST COMES FROM HOW THE
SOUTHERN FEATURE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COURSE OF THE COMING DAYS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NHC HAS AN AREA, STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF THE GA/SC COAST,
HIGHLIGHTED WITH A 20% PROB OF TC DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE STRONGER THE SOUTHERN FEATURE BECOMES THE MORE LIKELY FLOW WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE COLUMN ABOVE THE
CWA. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE DRIER, THUS RESULTING IN LOWER
POPS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS,
HOWEVER, IS SENSITIVE TO ANY CHANGES IN THE PATH OR STRENGTH OF THE
SOUTHERN FEATURE WHICH IS ALSO A DEPENDENT ON ANY AMPLIFICATION
WHICH CAN BE DERIVED FROM THE NORTHERN TROUGH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM SHRA AND TSRA, WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELDS THROUGH THE
EVENING AROUND 3-4KFT. THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW WOULD BE 19-23Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W/NW AT 5-10KTS, WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MODERATE ON SHRA/TSRA TIMING AND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
CULVER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 73 95 73 92 / 10 40 10 40
ATLANTA 74 91 74 90 / 10 40 10 40
BLAIRSVILLE 69 86 68 85 / 10 70 10 70
CARTERSVILLE 73 91 73 90 / 10 50 10 50
COLUMBUS 74 92 75 92 / 20 40 10 60
GAINESVILLE 74 92 74 91 / 10 50 10 40
MACON 73 92 73 91 / 10 40 20 40
ROME 72 90 72 90 / 10 50 10 60
PEACHTREE CITY 72 91 73 90 / 10 40 10 50
VIDALIA 74 95 74 94 / 10 40 20 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...CULVER
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