700
FXUS62 KFFC 171818
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
218 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HOT AND MUGGY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE, LEADING TO HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING LIKELY FOR MANY
AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A VERY HUMID, TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA,
CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND PWATS ABOVE 2" (WHICH,
BASED ON SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, PUTS US NEAR OR ABOVE THE DAILY
OBSERVED MAXIMUMS FOR MID JULY BASED ON THE 2.20" ON THE 00Z FFC
SOUNDING). ALL THIS IS TO SAY, IT WILL CONTINUE FEELING LIKE A
SAUNA, ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-
TO-MID 90S FOR MOST. FORECAST MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX READINGS BREACH
105-108 FOR A DECENT PORTION OF EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS
A RESULT.
WHILE BROAD RIDGING DOES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING AS WELL AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF
TO THE HEAT FOR SOME THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN FORECAST MLCAPE IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG, A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS, PRESENTING A
RISK PRIMARILY FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
SATURDAY WILL BRING A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE.
THE WEAK MIDLEVEL LOW (WITH A 20% "LOW" FORMATION CHANCE OUTLOOKED
BY NHC) CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
WHILE A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AS
SUCH, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION IS A GOOD
BET ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF
ANY THESE SCATTERED STORMS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN FLIRT
WITH OR REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAINS WARM WITH CONDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF A FEW
KEY FEATURES.
STILL WATCHING THE INTERACTION AND PHASING OF A WEAKLY DEVELOPING
GULF LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
THE NHC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE NORTHEAST GULF, NORTHERN FL
PANHANDLE, AND GA/SC COAST WITH A 20% CHANCE OF TC DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO FORM YET HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN WEAK AND DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. BY SUNDAY,
THE WEAK LOW GETS PICKED UP BY A DESCENDING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WHICH,
WHILE POTENTIALLY ASSISTING IN ITS DEVELOPMENT, WILL LIKELY CARRY IT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE LOW COULD DRIVE DRIER (NOT COOLER) AIR
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WOULD IMPINGE ON DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE SUMMER TIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS RETURN IN NORMAL FASHION.
IN SHORT, A STRONGER GULF LOW WILL RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS TO
START NEXT WEEK (UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT OCCURS),
BEFORE CONDITIONS RETURN TO NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WON'T SEE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT,
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM SHRA AND TSRA, WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELDS THROUGH THE
EVENING AROUND 3-4KFT. THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW WOULD BE 19-23Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW AT 6-11KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MODERATE ON SHRA/TSRA TIMING AND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
CULVER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 74 93 74 93 / 10 30 10 40
ATLANTA 75 91 75 92 / 10 30 10 40
BLAIRSVILLE 68 85 68 85 / 10 50 10 60
CARTERSVILLE 73 92 74 92 / 10 30 10 40
COLUMBUS 75 93 75 93 / 10 50 30 60
GAINESVILLE 74 91 75 92 / 10 30 10 40
MACON 74 93 74 92 / 20 40 40 60
ROME 72 91 73 91 / 10 30 10 50
PEACHTREE CITY 73 91 73 92 / 10 40 20 50
VIDALIA 75 95 74 94 / 30 50 40 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ024-025-027-
035>039-047>051-059>062-072>076-084>086-097-098-111>113.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...CULVER
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