654
FXUS62 KFFC 190729
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BRING
AN INCREASED RISK FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN A COUPLE OF PRIMARY
FEATURES THAT WILL DRIVE THE FORECAST TODAY. FIRST, AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT A
BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND TENNESSEE TODAY.
SECONDLY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (CURRENTLY REFERRED TO AS INVEST
91-L AND OUTLOOKED WITH 60% CHANCE OF FORMATION BY NHC) REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OFF THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA AS
IT SLOWLY MEANDERS WESTWARD. THIS KEEPS GEORGIA IN A VERY WARM,
MOIST ENVIRONMENT, PRIMED FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY GIVEN THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH IN ADDITION TO A BAND OF
INCREASED CONVERGENCE EXTENDING NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
INVEST 91-L.
IN ADDITION TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY, THE RISK FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE HIGHER, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WHERE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD. GIVEN FORECAST MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG, PWATS AROUND 2", AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THESE
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL FAVOR A DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. FOR
THIS REASON, SPC INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA, GENERALLY ALONG/NEAR THE
I-85 CORRIDOR, BOUNDED BY A SWATH OF MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A COUPLE INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
AS WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. SOME STORMS COULD AGAIN LINGER
INTO LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY BRINGS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE FORECAST CHANGES AS
THE GULF LOW WILL HAVE MADE VERY LIMITED WESTWARD PROGRESS AND THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
CAN THUS AGAIN BE EXPECTED.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-TO-MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN BREACH 100 FOR MANY SPOTS, THE
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD 105+ VALUES IS LOWER TODAY BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS GOING IN EARNEST. WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY
NEAR OR BRIEFLY REACH 105, THE MORE LIMITED NATURE WILL PRECLUDE
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
HEAT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN AS WE KICK OFF THE NEW
WORK WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY COOLING INTO THE MID-70S (NOT MUCH RELIEF), AND DAYTIME DEW
POINTS REACHING THE MID- TO UPPER-70S (VERY HUMID). APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH DAY ACROSS MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND WE MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ATLANTA METRO. AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT REACHING DOWN TO GEORGIA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME, ONLY TAKING 3-4 DEGREES OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY VS. WEDNESDAY, BUT NOTICEABLY REDUCING DEW
POINTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA (REACHING THE
60S INSTEAD OF THE 70S). TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FRIDAY, BEFORE THE HUMIDITY STARTS TO INCREASE A BIT
AGAIN SATURDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 90 TO
100 DURING THIS POST-FRONTAL PERIOD. NOT A HUGE AIRMASS CHANGE, BUT
A BRIEF BREAK COMPARED TO WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING.
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA BY MID-WEEK, GEORGIA WILL BE POSITIONED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ANY DISTURBANCES RIDING THIS FLOW COULD ACT TO FOCUS
PERIODS OF CONVECTION AT TIMES. ANOTHER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ON WHAT IMPACT THIS WILL OR WILL NOT HAVE ON GEORGIA
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
EARLIER SHRA/TSRA HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED, THOUGH ISOLATED -SHRA
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 07-08Z, PRIMARILY IN VICINITY OF CSG.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED WITH ONLY PATCHY
LOW CIGS/REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY AT MCN 10-13Z. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN BE MAXIMIZED IN COVERAGE 20-01Z. WINDS WILL
BE NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND W THROUGH MORNING AND W TO NW AT 3-6 KTS
THEREAFTER.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ANY MORNING LOW CIGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 94 73 93 73 / 30 20 30 10
ATLANTA 92 75 92 75 / 50 20 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 86 68 85 69 / 50 20 60 20
CARTERSVILLE 92 73 92 74 / 40 20 50 10
COLUMBUS 93 74 94 76 / 50 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 92 73 91 74 / 40 20 40 20
MACON 92 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
ROME 92 73 92 74 / 50 20 50 10
PEACHTREE CITY 92 73 92 73 / 50 20 30 10
VIDALIA 96 75 95 75 / 10 10 30 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SMITH
AVIATION...RW
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