531
FXUS62 KFFC 210533
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
133 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL STORM BERTHA HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND
WILL MEANDER WESTWARD THIS WEEK. NO DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE
LOCAL AREA ARE EXPECTED.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK WITH ANY
POTENTIAL FOR COOLER CONDITIONS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
A WARM AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST GA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTH GA AND ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. THOUGH LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD IN COVERAGE WITH NBM ALSO
REFLECTING THIS THEME LARGELY DUE TO A LITTLE BIT MORE DRIER AIR
PRESENT IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS. NONETHELESS, THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTH GA -- CLOSER TO WHERE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY RESIDES IN
CENTRAL TN -- AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA (COLUMBUS TO MACON
TO SWAINSBORO SOUTH) WHERE AN INITIAL AREA OF CONVERGENCE FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LIFTS NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CHANCES REMAIN LOW (<15%) FOR AREAS IN AND AROUND THE
I-20/I-85 CORRIDORS.
SPEAKING OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CENTER BUT STILL CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED
BY MODERATE SHEAR. VERY SLOW IF ANY MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE REST OF TODAY , WITH THE LATEST NHC TRACK INDICATING AN
EVENTUAL WESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE TX COAST IN THE COMING
DAYS. NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GA.
TUESDAY'S FORECAST WILL BE MORE OR LESS THAN SAME AS TODAY'S
FORECAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN SWINGING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS
NORTH GA. A INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA (MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20) TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A TICK WARMER ON TUESDAY THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES AT OR JUST BELOW 105
(HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA) IN CENTRAL GA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
ONE FINAL DAY OF WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 100 IS
EXPECTED BEFORE TEMPERATURES EASE TO SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE. A COLD FRONT (AND I USE THE WORD 'COLD' LIBERALLY) IS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF
THURSDAY. A FEW AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA MAY CONTINUE
TO SEE HI VALUES AS HIGH AS 100 THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE AS A RESULT, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW
THERE IS ONLY A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE BEST
DYNAMICS REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN SOME
DRIER AIR, AND WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S IT WON'T BE NEARLY AS HUMID.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. AS ALWAYS, A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS TO WATCH OUT FOR.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE GULF,
BUT WE AGREE WITH NHC'S TRACK AND ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS AS A RESULT THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO FEW/SCT CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISO
SHRA/TSRA ARE MOST PROBABLE AT MCN/CSG 18-00Z, THOUGH A ROGUE
SHRA CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS FAR NORTH AS ATL. WINDS WILL BE NEAR
DUE SOUTH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD, LIKELY FAVORING SSE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARD SSW EXPECTED
AFTER 21-00Z. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM NEAR CALM THIS MORNING TO
8-12 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OTHER ELEMENTS.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 75 91 73 87 / 10 50 70 80
ATLANTA 75 91 74 88 / 0 40 70 70
BLAIRSVILLE 70 83 66 82 / 20 80 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 75 91 72 88 / 0 50 70 60
COLUMBUS 76 92 76 92 / 10 40 20 70
GAINESVILLE 75 90 73 86 / 10 60 80 70
MACON 75 92 75 91 / 10 40 30 60
ROME 75 91 71 88 / 10 60 70 50
PEACHTREE CITY 74 91 73 89 / 10 40 60 70
VIDALIA 76 95 76 94 / 10 10 10 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...RW
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