717
FXUS62 KFFC 070544
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
AGAIN BRINGING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH THREATS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SEASONAL
NORMS (MID-80S TO LOWER 90S) THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY POPPING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AT LEAST ONE SEVERE WARNING ALREADY IN EASTERN GEORGIA. CLOUD
COVER AND SOME MORNING SHOWERS HAVE CREATED AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA, WHERE THE METRO AND NORTH GEORGIA
HAVE REMAINED A BIT COOLER COMPARED TO MOSTLY CLOUD FREE CENTRAL
GEORGIA. SPC SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE WELL OVER 2500 J/KG
IN CENTRAL GEORGIA WHILE NORTH GEORGIA REMAINS NEAR OR BELOW 2000
J/KG - AND SBCAPE SHOWS EVEN STARKER CONTRAST. PWATS ARE A BIT
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH AXIS OF 2"+ ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA AND
STRETCHING BACK INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA. SHEAR REMAINS VERY
MINIMAL AS THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO BE STUCK BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH
TO THE EAST AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
CONTINUED HEATING WILL LIKELY INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH INSTABILITY AXIS AND OTHER OUTFLOW PROVIDING SOME INITIAL FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. PUT
ALL THE ABOVE TOGETHER - EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THESE WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BEING BRIEFLY SEVERE AS WE'VE ALREADY SEEN WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE TALLEST STORMS
QUICKLY CRASH BACK DOWN WITHIN THE HIGH PWAT AIRMASS. WITH LACK OF
SHEAR AND HIGH PWATS, FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE AROUND AGAIN.
EXPECT HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD MEET OR EXCEED 2" PER HOUR.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE
REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS OR PARTICULARLY PERSISTENT STORMS IN TERMS
OF LONGEVITY.
GOING INTO TONIGHT, AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP
ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR NEAR THE SURFACE POSSIBLY AS BYPRODUCT OF
OUTFLOW FROM COMBINED STORMS AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. MODELS SEEM TO
FAVOR THE IDEA OF A CORRIDOR OF LOWER VISIBILITIES (POSSIBLE FOG) OR
AT LEAST LOWER CLOUDS SETTING UP THROUGH HERE. THE FORMER COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACTS TO MORNING COMMUTE. BY AFTERNOON, WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO WRAP ITS WAY AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH,
BRINGING SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR LONG-TERM OUTLOOK AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FIRMLY
LOCKED INTO THE SUMMERTIME REGIME. THE INFLUENCES OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL ENSURE A VARYING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SETUP WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED PWATS RANGING FROM 1.5-2" AND POP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-50% RANGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS. ONE HOPEFUL
OUTCOME OF THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LIMITING THE
RISE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN AREAS BY THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS INDICES RISE INTO TRIPLE-DIGIT
TERRITORY, PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS IMPROVING
MOMENTARILY. EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT 600-800FT
FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR AT CSG. LOW CHANCE FOR LIFR AT
IN THE METRO SITES AND AHN. BEGINS TO SCATTER OUT BY 15-16Z
BEFORE ANOTHER CU FIELD FORMS WITH THE CHANCE FOR TSRA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (19-23Z). LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SSE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IFR.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TSRA TIMING.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 70 90 71 91 / 20 30 10 20
ATLANTA 73 90 73 90 / 30 40 20 30
BLAIRSVILLE 66 83 66 85 / 30 70 10 60
CARTERSVILLE 71 90 71 91 / 30 40 10 30
COLUMBUS 74 93 74 92 / 10 30 10 30
GAINESVILLE 71 88 71 90 / 30 50 10 30
MACON 72 92 72 92 / 10 30 10 30
ROME 70 90 71 91 / 20 50 10 30
PEACHTREE CITY 71 90 71 90 / 20 40 20 30
VIDALIA 73 92 73 93 / 10 50 30 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....82
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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