810
FXUS62 KFFC 260519
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
119 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY FOR NORTH GEORGIA AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
- GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
GEORGIA SITS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500 MB RIDGE TODAY,
AND BY TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) EVENING, THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE WHILE 500 MB TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE COURTESY OF SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA, GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
SWAINSBORO. IT IS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT -- AND WHERE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED -- THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE IN THIS AREA, BUT VERY LITTLE DEEP-
LAYER WIND SHEAR (850-300 MB MEAN WINDS ARE 5-10 KTS) SO SLOW-
MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DUMPING HEAVY RAINFALL IN
CONCENTRATED AREAS -- PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME, PER THE HREF 6-HOUR PMM. WATER LOADING IN
DOWNDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OUTLINED FOR A SLIVER OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA, INCLUDING AMERICUS, ABBEVILLE, AND VIDALIA.
STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 10 PM. AS FAR AS HEAT TODAY GOES, HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AROUND
100-105 DEGREES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
TOMORROW: WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA, AS WELL AS ANOTHER DAY
OF HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES FOR MANY.
CAMS ARE AT ODDS REGARDING WHEN DIURNAL CONVECTION BEGINS AND ITS
COVERAGE, BUT IN GENERAL, IT APPEARS THAT SOMETHING OF A THERMAL
GRADIENT ALONG A MORNING CLOUD DECK COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT -- ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CAMS SHOW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION (SOME AS
ORGANIZED AS AN MCS/QLCS) PROGRESSING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI,
TENNESSEE, AND ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT A CLEAR SIGNAL IS
LACKING REGARDING THIS CONVECTION MAKING IT EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA.
STAY TUNED!
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
BEGINNING THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY, THE TROUGHING WILL BE
ELONGATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A PUSH OF VORTICITY MOVING
INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONT IS OVER THE NORTH
GEORGIA AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STALLING OVER THE I-85
CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE LIKELY
RANGE AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT STORMS
SHOULD STAY SUBSEVERE BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR IN THE AREA WHEN THESE STORMS
FORM. WITH HIGH PWATS IN THE 1.8-2" RANGE AND THE STORMS EXPECTED
TO FORM ALONG THE FLOW THIS COULD ALSO INCREASE OUR FLOODING
THREAT. WPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT ERO AS WELL. PUSHING
INTO FRIDAY, EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH THE TROUGH STILL
FULLY OVER OUR AREA. SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE PATTERN CHANGE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY 20-30% CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO
THE MID 90S AS RIDING BEGINS SETTLING IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND BR PSBL PRIMARILY AT MCN BETWEEN 10-14Z. THERE
IS A NON-ZERO CHANCES A FEW LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF ATL BUT OCCURRENCE SHOULD BE BRIEF. OTHERWISE, VFR AT ALL SITES.
LIGHT, VRB WIND OVERNIGHT PICKING UP FROM THE SE 4-6KTS BY 14Z.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BY 18Z THUS MAINTAIN
PROB30S FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES THRU 00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE OF LOW CIGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 70 90 70 87 / 30 50 60 70
ATLANTA 73 89 71 88 / 30 50 50 70
BLAIRSVILLE 66 83 65 83 / 20 60 40 70
CARTERSVILLE 71 90 70 89 / 20 50 50 50
COLUMBUS 74 92 73 90 / 30 60 50 80
GAINESVILLE 70 88 70 86 / 30 50 50 70
MACON 72 91 72 89 / 30 60 50 80
ROME 70 89 69 89 / 20 50 50 40
PEACHTREE CITY 71 89 70 88 / 30 60 40 70
VIDALIA 72 93 73 91 / 30 60 50 80
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...07
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