663
FXUS62 KFFC 281042
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
642 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN EAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WARMING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN ALABAMA/GEORGIA. AT
THE SURFACE, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
CONTINUES TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST, IT WILL GIVE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE
LOW 70S IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE COMBINATION OF WET SOILS
SOILS FROM YESTERDAY'S RAIN, LIGHT WINDS, AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
MOST LIKELY IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD, WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG IT WILL
CONCENTRATE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF. AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA WILL SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2+
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WHILE AREAS OF NORTHWEST
GEORGIA WILL SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN
1.25-1.75 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WHERE MORE AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE UPPER 80S IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA, THOUGH THEY WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW 90S IN
NORTH GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO PEAK BETWEEN 1500-2500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. IN PORTIONS OF EAST GEORGIA, THERE IS EXPECTED
TO BE AN OVERLAP BETWEEN THIS INSTABILITY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND HIGH PWATS. THIS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASED RISK FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS,
WARRANTING A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FROM THE SPC. STRONGER
STORMS THAT OCCUR WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3 OR MORE INCHES WHERE THESE
STORMS ARE SLOW TO MOVE. WHILE LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, CONSIDERING THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGHER PWATS, THIS
HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE
WHERE SOILS WILL BE MORE CAPABLE OF HANDLING THESE TOTALS.
ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST, LEAVING THE
FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE SET TO BUILD
IN OVER THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL SPREAD ATLANTIC MOISTURE FURTHER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AND COULD DRIVE THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, AS A
NORTHWESTWARD RETREAT OF THE FRONT COULD THUS LEAD TO HIGHER POPS
RETURNING TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE. THE COVERAGE
OF STORMS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. A 500 MB RIDGE WILL
REPLACE THE CURRENT TROUGHING ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL PROMOTE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS,
BUT CHANCES/COVERAGE WILL BE TAMPED DOWN COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL, BUT BENEATH
A STOUT RIDGE, A LACK OF DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR AND MID-
/UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MEANS THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
UNLIKELY. SHOULD THE RIDGE NOT END UP AS STRONG/EXPANSIVE AS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED, THEN DISTURBANCES COULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN
COVERAGE OF STORMS ON ANY GIVEN DAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. BENEATH
THE RIDGE, LIGHT STEERING WINDS COULD MEAN SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND
THUS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME STORM HAZARDS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN STRONG STORMS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE AND AMPLE MOISTURE ALSO MEANS
INCREASING HEAT INDEX VALUES. BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WIDESPREAD VALUES OF 100 TO 104 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD 105+
DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH, HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
LIFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE ONGOING IN AREAS OF EAST GA,
INCLUDING AHN, AND ALSO TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE ATL METRO.
THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH/EAST METRO, WARRANTING A
TEMPO FOR BKN004 AT ATL/PDK UNTIL 13Z. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SCATTER AFTER SUNRISE, WITH A CU FIELD AROUND 020-030
EXPECTED BY 15Z AND 035-050 BY 18Z. SCATTERED TSRA IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A PROB30 FOR TSRA BEING CARRIED
FROM 20-02Z AT THE ATL METRO SITES. CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO BEGIN BY 18Z IN CENTRAL GA INCLUDING CSG/MCN. OUTSIDE OF
STORM OUTFLOWS, PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE NW AT 3-6 KTS AT THE ATL
METRO SITES AND SW AT 3-6 KTS AT AHN/MCN/CSG TODAY, DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 90 68 86 69 / 30 50 50 30
ATLANTA 90 71 87 72 / 30 30 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 85 63 83 64 / 40 10 50 10
CARTERSVILLE 91 69 90 70 / 10 10 30 20
COLUMBUS 89 72 89 72 / 50 20 50 20
GAINESVILLE 89 68 85 70 / 40 40 40 20
MACON 86 70 86 71 / 40 40 60 40
ROME 90 68 90 69 / 10 10 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 90 69 87 70 / 30 20 50 20
VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 70 40 60 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...KING
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