939
FXUS62 KFFC 171744
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES WEST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX
REGION, AND UPPER LEVEL "EASTERLY" WAVE/DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
FLORIDA AND MOVE OVER THE GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE RATHER DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WHICH
WILL HELP SUPPORT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS. AT
THIS TIME, NOT SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY "SEVERE" STORMS FRIDAY BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INITIAL CONVECTION POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO
HIGHER DCAPE VALUES - WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED MICROBURSTS AS
STORMS GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA (GIVEN FLOW AROUND UPR
RIDGE).
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW (FRIDAY) WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOUT 5-8F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY (W/ LESS MORNING CLOUD-COVER).
DJN.83
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
WILL SLIDE FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF. WARM
AND MOIST AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL POOL
ACROSS THE AREA, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S, COMBINING WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S TO DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST STARTS TO DROP OFF BY THE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
POTENTIAL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW GET ABSORBED
BY TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN WITH A WEDGE. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTION, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AFTER 07Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
FAVOR THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 4-8KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 18KTS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
82
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 92 69 96 70 / 0 0 20 10
ATLANTA 92 72 96 73 / 0 0 30 10
BLAIRSVILLE 88 66 89 65 / 10 0 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 94 70 97 71 / 0 0 20 10
COLUMBUS 91 69 96 72 / 0 0 0 10
GAINESVILLE 91 71 95 71 / 0 0 30 10
MACON 91 66 95 70 / 0 0 10 10
ROME 95 70 97 70 / 0 0 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 91 68 95 70 / 0 0 20 10
VIDALIA 91 67 93 71 / 0 0 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...82
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