457
FXUS62 KFFC 191058
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
658 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S
TO MID 100S TODAY AND SUNDAY.
- CONTINUED INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE/RIDGE CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOISTURE PUSHES
SW DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WILL KEEP MOVING SW AND PUSH INTO EAST GA
THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE 70S ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA TODAY. COMBINED WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY STEEP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON SO LOOKS LIKE
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN. WE WILL ALSO SEE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE NE THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK KEEPING POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE (30-50%).
TEMPS ALSO STAY IN THE 90S THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO A SIMILAR
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS ALSO CONTINUES. THE CURRENT GENERAL AND
MARGINAL RISK AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS FROM SPC LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE
REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THE RIDGE IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE'LL SEE STORM CHANCES BETWEEN 50% AND 75% THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER RIDGE TURNS THE FLOW MORE NW AND WE GET CUT
OFF FROM THE GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
BY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE INTO THE MID TO LOW 80S TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE DRY AIR CLEARS OUT AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES.
LOW TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
WE'LL GET A PLEASANT TASTE OF FALL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 4-8KT
RANGE OUT OF THE E TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME VFR CU
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA BY 15Z-17Z WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN AND AROUND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 93 70 90 69 / 30 30 10 10
ATLANTA 94 72 91 72 / 30 30 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 88 64 85 63 / 40 30 60 20
CARTERSVILLE 96 71 93 70 / 30 30 20 10
COLUMBUS 96 73 93 72 / 40 30 20 10
GAINESVILLE 92 70 89 70 / 40 40 30 20
MACON 95 71 92 71 / 30 30 10 10
ROME 97 70 94 69 / 30 10 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 95 70 92 69 / 30 30 10 10
VIDALIA 93 72 91 72 / 40 20 20 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...01
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