522
FXUS62 KFFC 031746
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
146 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERSPREADS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
PEAKS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CURRENTLY FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
- TEMPERATURES TREND MORE FALL-LIKE NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
IT'S FEELING DECIDEDLY NOT FALL-LIKE THIS MORNING AMID
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED, BUT THIS WILL BE FAIRLY
SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT SAGS INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
STILL, COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY WILL REMAIN OF THE SCATTERED
VARIETY, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ~2". DESPITE INCREASED COVERAGE, MANY AREAS
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME DRY TIME THROUGH THE DAY, AND WELL-ABOVE-
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED.
ENJOY ANY DRY WEATHER TODAY BECAUSE SUNDAY WILL BRING A WASHOUT FOR
MOST WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED. THIS WILL COME AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BISECT NORTH GEORGIA. CAMS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA, ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD LEADING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, AT WHICH POINT ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY SKIRT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PWATS WILL SURGE
FURTHER ABOVE 2", LIKELY AT OR ABOVE DAILY CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS
FOR THE DATE, PROVIDING PLENTY OF FUEL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
IN TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACK, WIDESPREAD
1-3" RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY FOR THE BULK OF OUR AREA. THE
HIGHEST TOTALS ARE FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR
WHERE A FEW INSTANCES OF RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 3-4+" RANGE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A
"SLIGHT" ENHANCED RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THESE AREAS FOR DAY 2
WHERE LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE MOST FAVORED.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TREND COOLER GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS
WELL AS A WEAK CAD EDGING INTO NORTH GEORGIA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S FOR MOST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF MIDDLE GEORGIA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
BY SUN NIGHT THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GA FINALLY BEGINS
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. THIS FRONT STALLS AGAIN
ACROSS N FL/S GA MON NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANCES STAYING ELEVATED
ACROSS CENTRAL GA THROUGH WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY SEEING PRECIP TOTALS
IN THE 2" TO 4" RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
NORTH GA THROUGH DAY 6. DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS, CENTRAL GA CAN HANDLE A BIT
MORE RAIN THAN NORTH GA BUT 2" TO 4.5" IS STILL A LOT OF WATER IN
JUST 5 DAYS. WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK IS OUT FOR MON
AS WELL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH GA. STILL NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BUT WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ONLY HAS US UNDER A GENERAL
RISK OF SEVERE THROUGH SUN WHICH CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.
BY DAYBREAK TUE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE STATE FROM THE
NORTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA
MON THROUGH THU.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
TSRA AND SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CU FIELD WILL BE SCT TO BKN AT TIMES BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE RAIN OR OTHER WX
IMPACTS. TONIGHT, CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD DROP AS WEDGE FRONT
APPROACHES FROM NE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO E AT 4-8 KTS. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONGSIDE INCREASING SHRA THROUGH 12-14Z. BY
14-16Z, STEADY RA EXPECTED AT MOST SITES THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
MOST OF DAY. RA MAY BRING SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO CIG/VSBY BUT STILL
REMAIN IFR/MVFR.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 84 66 73 64 / 60 60 90 80
ATLANTA 85 69 75 66 / 50 60 90 80
BLAIRSVILLE 80 63 71 60 / 70 60 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 87 68 76 64 / 50 50 90 90
COLUMBUS 88 70 78 68 / 50 60 90 90
GAINESVILLE 83 67 72 65 / 60 70 90 80
MACON 86 69 79 66 / 50 40 90 100
ROME 87 66 76 62 / 50 50 90 80
PEACHTREE CITY 85 68 76 65 / 50 60 100 80
VIDALIA 84 71 83 69 / 70 40 100 100
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...LUSK
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