859
FXUS62 KFFC 040735
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY INTO MONDAY.
- DRIER AND LARGELY COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE WORK WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHILE CONDITIONS ARE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, MUCH WETTER WEATHER WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING, A WEAK CAD WEDGE CURRENTLY
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BISECT THE AREA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP INTO THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON, HELPING TO DRAW CONTINUED DEEP GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE AREA, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL THEN DEVELOP AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING. ALL IN ALL, DON'T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IF ANY SUN
TODAY AMID INCREASINGLY GLOOMY CONDITIONS.
AS WE'VE BEEN HARPING ON THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE ANOMALOUS DEGREE
OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS >2" WILL PRESENT A
RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE OF FEW INSTANCES OF
NUISANCE OR FLASH FLOODING. A DAY 1 "SLIGHT" ENHANCED RAINFALL
OUTLOOK FROM WPC FOR MOST OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTS THIS RISK WELL.
WITH THAT SAID, GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF I-20 IN AREAS WITH SOILS BETTER EQUIPPED TO HANDLE A STEADY,
SOAKING RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE GEORGIA, NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE HOISTED
AT THIS TIME. WHILE CURRENT AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTAL FORECASTS FROM
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY HAVE TAPERED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY, RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 1-2" WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY COMMON AND SOME SPOTS WHERE
CONVECTIVE CELLS POTENTIALLY TRAIN (AS INDICATED IN A NUMBER CAMS)
COULD CERTAINLY SEE LOCALIZED TOTALS 3-4+" WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INFILTRATE
NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING A SLOW END TO PERSISTENT
RAINFALL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL STILL LIKELY LINGER IN MIDDLE GEORGIA THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY AS THE FRONT ONLY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
EVEN REDEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-85 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR FINALLY SURGES SOUTHWARD HEADING INTO
MONDAY EVENING, THOUGH BY THIS POINT THE STEADIER, HEAVIER RAINFALL
SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HELD INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS GIVEN
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL AND THE IMPACT OF THE WEDGE IN NORTH
GEORGIA WITH 80S LARGELY SHUNTED INTO SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, ANY NOTICEABLY MORE FALL-LIKE PLEASANT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS FINALLY
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE
BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BRIEFLY, THOUGH
QUICKLY REBOUNDING BY LATE WEEK. STILL, SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S (AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS) AND HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S TO
LOW-TO-MID 80S AMID MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL BRING A DECIDEDLY
MORE FALL-LIKE FEEL TO THINGS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND BACK TO A WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN BY THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES BACK NORTHWARD BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE, BUT
A RETURN TO A RAINY/MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD UNFORTUNATELY
COINCIDE WITH ANOTHER WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR BY 08-11Z FOR MOST AREAS WITH LIFR
CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR CIGS PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISO
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z WITH SHRA COVERAGE GRADUALLY
INCREASING THEREAFTER. MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE
18Z TODAY - 06Z MONDAY, DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE N TO S THEREAFTER.
EMBEDDED TSRA ARE MOST PROBABLE AT MCN/CSG. WINDS WILL BE SE TO E
AT 3-6 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 72 64 78 57 / 80 70 10 0
ATLANTA 75 67 79 62 / 90 70 20 0
BLAIRSVILLE 73 61 78 51 / 70 30 20 0
CARTERSVILLE 77 65 82 59 / 80 50 20 0
COLUMBUS 79 68 81 65 / 90 80 40 10
GAINESVILLE 72 66 78 58 / 80 40 20 0
MACON 80 66 79 62 / 90 80 40 10
ROME 77 63 82 56 / 70 40 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 76 65 80 59 / 90 80 20 0
VIDALIA 83 69 76 65 / 80 90 80 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
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