642
FXUS62 KFFC 071727
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE
INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
LATE FRIDAY.
- WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
THE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND POSSIBLY
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL LOCALLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY CENTERED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTHEAST WILL RAPIDLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY, THOUGH GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE,
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT, THOUGH HEIGHTS RISE ON THURSDAY
AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD A BIT.
THIS ALL WILL TRANSLATE INTO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY FOR MOST WITH HIGH CLOUDS
LARGELY RELEGATED TO PORTIONS OF MIDDLE GEORGIA, THOUGH THESE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE NORTHWARD A BIT BY THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS TODAY WILL JUMP A BIT FURTHER ON THURSDAY,
AVERAGING SOME 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THEN. STILL, EXPECT
PLEASANTLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AGAIN
THURSDAY. ALL EYES THEN TURN TO A RAPIDLY EVOLVING SITUATION
THEREAFTER COURTESY OF CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 OR WHAT IS
FORECAST TO SOON BE NAMED ISAIAS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
A RATHER COMPLEX SETUP IN THE LONG TERM, WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF
CONCERN BEING THE EVOLUTION OF NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9. MODELS
REMAIN HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION LIKELY
INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WHEN IT
COMES TO THE TRACK, FORWARD SPEED, AND INTENSITY OVER LAND. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER UNIQUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE POLAR JET
WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL JET, ON THE OTHER HAND,
WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OFF OF TEXAS AND A WAVE BREAK OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE EASTERN WAVE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR
TO TRANSITION THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO AN EXTRATROPICAL ONE. HOWEVER,
MODELS NOTORIOUSLY HAVE TROUBLE REALIZING THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS OF NEAR EQUAL SIZE. FURTHERMORE, THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF
ADIABATIC HEAT RELEASE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY THE WAVE AND ADD MORE
COMPLEXITY TO THE MIX.
SO THERE REMAIN SEVERAL UNANSWERED QUESTIONS AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS:
1.) HOW MUCH EASTWARD MOMENTUM WILL THE SYSTEM HAVE AS IT IS
LAUNCHED NORTHWARD BY THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE?
2.) HOW STRONG WILL THE SYSTEM BE WHEN THIS PROCESS STARTS?
3.) HOW FAR EAST WILL THE SYSTEM MAKE LANDFALL?
ALL OF THESE WILL DETERMINE THE INITIAL HAZARDS OF THE SYSTEM
INCLUDING TORNADO THREAT (HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO THE FRONT RIGHT
QUADRANT?), WIND THREAT, AS WELL AS THE INITIAL FLASH FLOODING
THREAT.
AS WE MOVE INTO LATER SATURDAY, THE CONCERN WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARDS
HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BRING THE SYSTEM ALMOST
DUE NORTH BEFORE RE-CURVING UNDER THE LARGER RIDGE INTO THE EAST-
CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER, I WOULD BE A FOOL NOT TO MENTION A FEW
MODELS WHICH STAND OUT. THESE INCLUDE THE GOOGLE GENCAST, THE 10/6
12Z GFS, AND THE CMC, WHICH STAND OUT FOR A COUPLE REASONS. THESE
MEMBERS REALIZED EITHER A MORE EASTWARD LANDFALL CLOSER TO THE
MOBILE/PENSACOLA REGION, OR DEVIANT MOTION AFTER LANDFALL HOLDING
RAIN ACROSS THE GULFCOAST STATES. NOW, THIS IS JUST 3 MEMBERS OF A
MUCH LARGER SET OF MODELS, HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS BEHIND THESE RUNS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY AND SHOULD STILL BE KEPT ON
THE BACKBURNER.
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO WATCH LEADING UP TO LANDFALL WILL BE THE
SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE, A WAVE
BREAK PATTERN SHOWN WELL IN THE 2PVU SURFACE, WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT
FOR MODELS TO REPRESENT WELL (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 2 PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING IT) AND COULD INITIATE TERTIARY DEVIANT
MOTION IN THE ALREADY COMPLEX SHORTWAVE/TROPICAL INTERACTION. THIS
IS REALLY ONLY TRUE, THOUGH, IN THE CASE OF A SYSTEM WITH INITIALLY
SLOWER MOVEMENT. THE 18Z GFS RUN SHOWS THIS IN ITS SHIFT BACK WEST
POST-LANDFALL, AS THE TD INITIALIZATION REALIGNED CLOSER TO THE
ACTUAL TD LOW CENTER DETERMINED BY THE NHC. SHOULD WE SEE STALLING
IN THE SYSTEM AFTER LANDFALL, THE THREAT FOR BOTH FLASH/RIVERINE
FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY TORNADOES COULD CHANGE.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEDGE MAY EVEN FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS ON
SATURDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DRIVING LOW
LEVEL E FLOW AROUND THE APPALACHIANS. ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD FOCUS
PRECIP ALONG THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY
ENHANCE TROPICAL ROTATION OR CUT IT OFF FROM THE SURFACE.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SEEMS ALMOST CERTAIN. THE NBM ENSEMBLE INDICATES
A 70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA,
THOUGH AREAS TYPICALLY IMPACTED BY THE WEDGE MAY HAVE HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY.
WHILE THE SYSTEM MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FULLY CLEAR POPS FROM THE AREA,
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE KICKS THROUGH CONDITIONS WARM BACK INTO THE
80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
MOSTLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE E
AT 5-8KT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING VRB OVERNIGHT AND
THEN PICKING UP OUT OF THE NW ~12Z AT 3-6KT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
BACK E TOMORROW AFTERNOON ~18Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 81 54 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 81 57 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 79 51 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 84 54 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 85 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 80 58 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 84 55 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 84 52 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 82 53 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 82 60 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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