389
FXUS62 KFFC 081812
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
212 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- HURRICANE ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.
- CONFIDENCE AND CONCERN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THAT STRONG
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBILITIES
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM TODAY INTO THE BULK OF THE DAY
FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY TREND DOWNHILL THEREAFTER. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY
WHILE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP SEVERAL DEGREES
TODAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE MORE APPRECIABLY
IN ADVANCE OF HURRICANE ISAIAS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE, A CAD WEDGE WILL BUILD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA AT THE SURFACE. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT INITIAL RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE GEORGIA AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE HURRICANE ISAIAS AND ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST FORECAST CONE
FROM NHC PROGS LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS POSITIONS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER OF ISAIAS, WHERE
STRONG WINDS, FLOODING RAIN, AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE ON THE TABLE.
WIND THREAT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY, HAVING
BUILT IN OVER THE APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY AND BEEN REINFORCED WITH
COLD AIR DAMMING (THE "WEDGE"). A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS GEORGIA AS ISAIAS MOVES NORTHWARD AND
PUSHES UP AGAINST THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. DUE TO THIS TIGHTENED
GRADIENT, THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS IS FORECAST TO BE LARGER ON THE
EAST SIDE OF ISAIAS. AS A RESULT, AT LEAST SOME PERIOD OF SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY, A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ET) OF ISAIAS AND MAY BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN INITIAL INCREASE IN
WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE HOURS AFTER ISAIAS HAS BEGUN ITS ET. THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A "STING JET" -- AN
ACCELERATION OF DESCENDING AIR THAT BRINGS EXTREME LOCALIZED WINDS.
SOME FORM OF WIND-RELATED WATCH ISSUANCE IS VERY LIKELY IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO.
FLOODING RAIN THREAT: GIVEN STRONG TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AS
ISAIAS MOVES INLAND, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS FROM
ISAIAS WILL BE WHERE THE MOST EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED.
THAT SAID, IT IS FUTILE TO TRY TO PIN DOWN WHERE EXACTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR, SO RESIDENTS ANYWHERE IN GEORGIA SHOULD
PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND/OR RIVER
FLOODING, SHOULD THEY FIND THEMSELVES UNDER PERSISTENT RAINBANDS.
OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BACKED BY MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE HI-RES GUIDANCE PAINTING BULLSEYES/SWATHS OF
GREATER AMOUNTS OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THEY TRY TO RESOLVE THE
RAINBANDS.
TORNADO THREAT: THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES HOLDS THAT THE FRONT RIGHT QUADRANT OF THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. GIVEN THAT THE CENTER OF
ISAIAS WILL VERY LIKELY TRACK TO THE WEST OF GEORGIA, TORNADOES WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA -- ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WEDGE BOUNDARY AND OUTSIDE OF THE COOLER, STABLE WEDGE
AIRMASS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
MOSTLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A THICK
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NE AT 5-8KT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN PICKING UP TOMORROW OUT OF THE E AT 10KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20KT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 62 76 60 68 / 0 0 80 100
ATLANTA 64 76 61 70 / 0 10 90 100
BLAIRSVILLE 57 75 54 64 / 0 0 70 90
CARTERSVILLE 62 79 59 71 / 0 0 80 100
COLUMBUS 64 77 62 76 / 0 30 100 100
GAINESVILLE 64 75 60 66 / 0 0 80 100
MACON 61 76 62 75 / 0 30 90 100
ROME 60 80 59 70 / 0 0 80 100
PEACHTREE CITY 61 76 59 72 / 0 10 90 100
VIDALIA 66 76 67 78 / 0 30 90 100
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>037-041>048-053>057.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GAZ052-066>069-078>080-089>093-102>104.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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