061
FXUS62 KFFC 100545
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, WITH A LONG DURATION OF STRONG
WINDS, HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
TORNADOES.
- ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TONIGHT.
- NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE ALL LAST MINUTE PREPARATIONS FROM
STRONG WINDS AND IN CASE OF POWER OUTAGES, AND AS ALWAYS, MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS IMPACTS ON NORTH AND CENTRAL GA:
OVERCAST AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS BEFORE HURRICANE ISAIAS BEGINS TO
IMPACT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING, WITH
WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE GULF
COAST TONIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST/EAST QUADRANT OF THE
STORM WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES.
STRONG WINDS:
AS ISAIAS MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, ITS WIND FIELD
WILL EXPAND CONSIDERABLY, WITH STRONG WINDS EXTENDING WELL EAST OF
THE CENTER OF THE STORM INTO WEST-CENTRAL GA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH/EAST, WHILE ISAIAS WILL BE WEAKENING
AND BECOMING POST-TROPICAL, THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ACROSS MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA, AND A WIND ADVISORY COVERS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
WARNINGS WHERE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ACROSS ALL AREAS, THE
PROLONGED AND STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES FROM
DOWNED LIMBS AND TREES, ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH SATURATED
SOILS FROM PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
HEAVY RAINFALL:
AS ISAIAS MOVES NORTHWARD, IT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
MULTIPLE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH A LOCALIZED SWATH OF AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES WHERE
THE HEAVIEST BANDS SET UP. HIGH RAINFALL RATES (PWAT VALUES OF
2-2.3") AND REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND POOR-DRAINGE AREAS, AS
WELL AS FLOOD- PRONE CREEKS AND STREAMS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TORNADOES:
AS ISAIAS TRACKS NORTHWARD AND INLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA, CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD, INCLUDING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TORNADOES FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY QUICK TO
DEVELOP AND SHORT-LIVED, BUT WITH THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE UNIQUE SETUP, WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER (EF2 OR EF3),
LONG-TRACK TORNADO. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT EVERYONE HAS A WAY TO
RECEIVE TORNADO WARNINGS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
MID LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS JUST TO THE WEST AS THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS VACATES THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DRIER AND
WARM CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK.
POPS REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR ALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID 80S BY MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
STRONG NE WINDS TO START OFF THE TAF CYCLE WITH SUSTAINED 20KTS AND
THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO 35KTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, PEAKING AT AROUND 40KTS THOUGH
ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE RESOLVING AFTER 18Z AS THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS BEGIN TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR BOTH CIGS AND VIS AS WIND DRIVEN RAIN CONTINUES.
TSRA IS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 65 74 62 83 / 90 10 0 0
ATLANTA 63 74 62 83 / 60 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 58 67 56 78 / 90 50 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 62 74 58 84 / 70 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 79 60 87 / 20 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 64 71 62 81 / 90 20 0 0
MACON 65 79 61 86 / 70 0 0 0
ROME 60 73 56 85 / 70 20 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 61 75 59 85 / 50 0 0 0
VIDALIA 72 81 64 85 / 90 10 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>037-041>048-053>057.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ038-039-
049>051-058>062-070>076-081>085-094>097-105>109.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GAZ052-066>069-078>080-089>093-
102>104.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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