699
FXUS63 KFGF 161743
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LESS THAN 0.10 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED NORTHEAST ND AND
NORTHWEST MN THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW MIX MAY
OCCUR IN DEVILS LAKE AREA, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO A
TRACE.
- TUE-WED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW PREDICTABILITY ON
WINTER IMPACTS AND HIGHER PREDICTABILITY ON WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
PRETTY AMAZING THE TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT OF THE MORNING ARE
IN THE MID 40S IN MID NOVEMBER (ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS). THERE
IS A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA, WITH GUSTY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. PRETTY STRONG WINDS UP TO 850MB (AND
ABOVE TOO), WHERE THERE IS 50 KNOT SPEED MAX OVER OUR EASTERN
FA. SO THERE IS LIKELY SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER ALONG AND EAST
OF THE RRV THIS MORNING. THE 50 KNOT SPEED MAX SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEEING A LITTLE
FOG ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA,
ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES SEEM TO BE JUST WEST OF THIS
FA, OR AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF FOG
ACROSS NORTHERN TOWNER COUNTY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE,
THERE IS A STEADY BAND OF CLOUDS THAT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UP TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. THIS
SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST 500/300MB WINDS, WHICH
SHOULD ALSO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. SO THERE WILL BE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN, MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.
OVERALL, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS DOING FINE, WITH MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
NO CHANGES NEEDED AS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA AND FOG REMAINS
PATCHY AS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE THRU FAR SE
SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN MANITOBA TODAY. THIS TRACK HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT BY MODEL AND ENSEMBLES THE PAST 48 HOURS.
NEXT TUESDAY SYSTEM REMAINS VARIABLE IN TRACK AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY WAVE IN EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN TUES NIGHT. THIS INTERACTION WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF SNOW INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ND. OVERALL THOUGH
SOLUTIONS FAVORING A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM DUE TO SNOW HAVE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24-48 HOURS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...
UPPER WAVE TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MT INTO SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA THIS EVENING WITH SFC LOW LOCATED FROM SW INTO
NORTHEAST ND BY 06Z SUN. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
MOSTLY ALL WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOW. ALSO MILD AIR AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHS THIS AFTN
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. ONLY CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY WILL BE
FAR NORTHWEST FCST AREA AND THAT IS FOR THIS AFTN. THIS EVENING
WILL SEE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SPREAD EAST AS LOW MOVES TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND MOISTURE SPREADS MORE EAST, MAINLY THRU SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS
PSBL IN DVL BASIN, LANGDON AREA TONIGHT PERHAPS BRINGING A TRACE
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FORM
THIS SYSTEM.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL WITH 40S FOR HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER, ESP IN NORTHWEST MN. SOME LOW
50S MONDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM.
MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
STRONGER 500 MB WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 12Z TUE. A
LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTH QUICKLY MONDAY
NIGHT, OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUES. SFC LOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST MN AT 12Z TUE. AT THIS STAGE
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WITH GFS AND GEFS TAKE A LOW MORE EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, WHILE ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS GLOBAL CANADIAN DO MAINTAIN A SEPARATE SFC
CIRCULATION NORTH INTO FAR NW MN BY 06Z WED. THIS IS THE
PREFERRED TRACK. THIS WOULD KEEP WARMER AIR OVER MUCH OF E ND
AND MN AND MAINTAIN ANY PRECIP AS RAIN THRU TUES EVENING. THIS
WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAKER 500 MB WAVE IN EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN TUES EVENING AND DEVELOP A MORE NORTHWEST LOCATED
DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW AREA IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN
MANITOBA WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ND BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SOLUTION WILL KEEP HIGHER
PERCENTAGES OF SNOW IN DVL BASIN TO LANGDON AREAS.
48 SNOWFALL PROBS (12Z TUE-12 THU) VIA NBM OF EQUAL OR MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW IS 50 PCT IN LANGDON, 35 PCT DEVILS LAKE AND
15-20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE IN THE FCST AREA. 48 HOUR PROBS OF
EQUAL OR MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE 30 PERCENT IN LANGDON
AREA, 20 PERCENT DEVILS LAKE AND LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
PROBS FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP ARE IN THE 25-40
PERCENT RANGE IN THE SAME 48 HOUR PERIOD.
IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS AND GEFS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS WITH
SNOWFALL TUES NIGHT-WED.
EVEN GOING WITH HIGHER SNOW PROBS, ONLY AREAS OF IMPACT WOULD BE
NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE FCST AREA TUES NIGHT-WED. WPC PROB WSSI
INDICATE LIKELY MINOR IMPACTS DVL AREA WITH ONLY 10 PCT CHANCE
OF MODERATE IMPACTS FROM SNOW THAT SAME AREA. FOR THE RRV AND
INTO MN CHANCES FOR IMPACTS, EVEN MINOR, ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
LOTS OF ISSUES TO MONITOR FOR THE TAFS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH ALL THE ELEMENTS CHANGING. FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS, GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A MVFR DECK
TO MONITOR AROUND KDVL. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND EXPAND
TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL START TO TURN
SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST. SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE HIGHER END,
BUT AS THEY SWITCH TO THE WEST, NOT SURE THERE WILL BE GUSTS
DURING THE NIGHT. FOR THAT REASON, LEFT SUSTAINED WINDS HIGHER
WITH NO GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW OBSERVATIONS WITH GUSTS, BUT
THINK THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. AS A
WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIPITATION AFFECTS AREAS NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. FOR NOW, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THIS BEING AT KDVL, MENTIONED A PERIOD OF THIS THERE. ONLY WENT
VCSH AT OTHER SITES FOR NOW, WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TYPE AND
WHETHER IT ACTUALLY HOLDS TOGETHER. CLOUDS LOOK TO DECREASE FOR
SOME SITES FAIRLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WILL TAKE LONGER AT
OTHERS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
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