090
FXUS63 KFGF 162107
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
307 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE REGION/CANADIAN BORDER, GIVING A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN GRASSY AREAS.
- THE PROBABILITY FOR 0.50 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FA
IS 60 PERCENT (1 INCH OR MORE IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MINOR/MODERATE WINTER IMPACTS.
GREATEST CHANCE (20%) FOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY AFFECT THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..SYNOPSIS
THE 700MB LOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT, REACHING WINNIPEG BY MIDNIGHT AND EAST CENTRAL MANITOBA
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT,
BUT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OF THE 700MB TRACK. BRIEF 500MB
RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH STEADY BRISK WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW SUNDAY, HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FIRST SYSTEM. A DEEP 500MB SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN
LIFTS NORTHWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT WITH IT. THE SYSTEM THEN APPEARS TO ABSORB ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, HELPING
TO STRENGTHEN IT AGAIN TO A CLOSED LOW RIGHT OVER THIS FA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH WAVE INTERACTIONS AND BEING 3 DAYS AWAY, THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS MAY UNFOLD.
HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND POTENTIAL WINTER
IMPACTS BEFORE THE 500MB LOW FINALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST.
..LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TONIGHT
WITH THE NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE 700MB LOW TONIGHT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FIRST EVENT WILL BE WEST OR NORTH OF
THIS FA. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT RAINFALL, GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL HELP TO BLANKET THE FA TONIGHT, WHICH
SHOULDN'T ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVILS LAKE REGION INTO THE NORTHERN
RRV, WHERE SUB-FREEZING LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED. 925MB TEMPERATURES
ALSO DIP BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200. THEREFORE
SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN GRASSY AREAS
MAINLY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE REGION AND ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY FOG IN THESE SAME AREAS, ALTHOUGH
AT THIS POINT DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH FOR IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW
OR FOG.
..RAIN EVENT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 500MB LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE FA WILL BE IN ITS WARM SECTOR. A GOOD
SWATH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA, WITH THE PROBABILITY
FOR 0.50 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL BEING ABOUT 60 PERCENT. THE
PROBABILITY FOR OVER AN INCH HAS LOWERED A BIT FROM PRIOR RUNS
(LESS THAN 30 PERCENT). WITH THE WAVE INTERACTIONS POSSIBLE,
WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. THE
MOISTURE FEED IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR MID NOVEMBER, WITH A 60+
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 0.80
INCHES.
..SNOW/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS THE WAVE INTERACTIONS POTENTIALLY CONTINUE INTO THIS PERIOD,
ENOUGH COLD AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM TO RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW, THERE IS
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MODERATE (WINTER STORM) IMPACTS
DURING THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH IT IS GREATEST WEST OF THE RRV.
ALSO THINK THE IMPACTS WILL BE FELT MOST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING RUSH PERIOD. THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
LOTS OF ISSUES TO MONITOR FOR THE TAFS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH ALL THE ELEMENTS CHANGING. FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS, GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A MVFR DECK
TO MONITOR AROUND KDVL. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND EXPAND
TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL START TO TURN
SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST. SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE HIGHER END,
BUT AS THEY SWITCH TO THE WEST, NOT SURE THERE WILL BE GUSTS
DURING THE NIGHT. FOR THAT REASON, LEFT SUSTAINED WINDS HIGHER
WITH NO GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW OBSERVATIONS WITH GUSTS, BUT
THINK THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS. AS A
WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIPITATION AFFECTS AREAS NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. FOR NOW, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THIS BEING AT KDVL, MENTIONED A PERIOD OF THIS THERE. ONLY WENT
VCSH AT OTHER SITES FOR NOW, WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TYPE AND
WHETHER IT ACTUALLY HOLDS TOGETHER. CLOUDS LOOK TO DECREASE FOR
SOME SITES FAIRLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WILL TAKE LONGER AT
OTHERS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...GODON
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