048
FXUS63 KFGF 171956
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
156 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST
AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
CLEARING LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FROM NEAR HALLOCK TO
BEMIDJI, AND CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST. OVERALL FORECAST
WITHIN THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
IS NOW CONFINED TO THE FAR REACHES OF LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
LATE THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO ONTARIO.
BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY, ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THOSE WHO
STILL IT (NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LAST TO SEE CLEARING SKIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON).
WITH THE HELP OF SUNSHINE IN EASTERN ND INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN,
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ARE FORECAST AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEARING GOING ON IN
PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND LIFTS THROUGH CANADA. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING. A BRIEF RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
MONDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES SPLIT AND TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT ACROSS OUR
AREA. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A STRONGER 500MB SYSTEM MOVES
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO OUR FA, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY. A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HELPS TO AMPLIFY THE 500MB SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST US. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR
ON THE BACK EDGE. UNCERTAINTY ARISES WITH THE TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW, HOW STRONG OF CAA WE GET, AND HOW
STRONG THE WINDS ARE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. NONE THE LESS,
THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW AND THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTERY IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POST MID
WEEK SYSTEM, WE SEE DRYING CONDITIONS AND RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
..PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THROUGH ND AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS MORNING BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. COLDER AIR IS BEING OBSERVED
MOVING IN FROM THE NW HELPING TO CHANGE OVER THE PRECIPITATION TO
SNOW. THIS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS PREDOMINATELY IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. TEMPERATURES IN THE BASIN ARE IN THE LOW 30S, WITH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN MN THROUGH
THE MID MORNING, WITH A BRIEF INTRODUCTION OF SNOW AT TIMES TO MIX
IN. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS IN
NE ND AND INTO FAR NW MN INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS, ALONG WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING AT THE SURFACE. LACK OF
ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT, LOW LEVEL SATURATION, AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND FREEZING BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO MIX IN. IF THIS WHERE TO OCCUR MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WOULD HAPPEN. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA INDICATE NO
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS TIME. THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND SATURATION NEAR
THE SURFACE LINGER THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. THUS THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LINGERS THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS FULLY DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
..WIDESPREAD RAIN
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, WE INTRODUCE ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION, THANKS TO A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET, PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING BRINGING
WIDEPSREAD SYNOPTIC FORCED RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE
AT TIMES AS WEAK FRONTOGENTIC FORCING OVERLAPS WITH THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING BRINGING UNORGANIZED BANDED PRECIPITATION. RAIN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM STARTS TO USHER IN CAA
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA HELPING TO TRANSITION THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.
THE PROBABILITY TO SEE OVER AN INCH OF QPF FOR 24 HOURS IS 40% FOR
AREAS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY POINTS EASTWARD, WITH LOWER CHANCES IN
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
..MINOR TO MODERATE WINTER IMPACTS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY WE START TO TRANSITION RAIN OVER TO
SNOW FOR THE AREA, STARTING FIRST IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVING IN THE
BASIN AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE. WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN PREDOMINANTLY
BY THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CAA PLAYING A
SMALLER ROLE. WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST UP TO 40KTS WITHIN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY POINTS WESTWARD. THE STRONGEST OF WINDS ARE
LOOKING TO BE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY POINTS WEST WHERE THE CAA
WILL BE STRONGER. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW MAY CREATE
IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY. PROBABILITIES OF SEEING OVER AN INCH OF SNOW
ARE 40% WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND 60% IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. AS IT LOOKS NOW, THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
MODERATE IMPACTS (WINTER STORM), ALTHOUGH IT IS GREATEST WEST OF THE
RRV.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES AS MVFR CEILINGS
PEEL NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15KT WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
8KT TONIGHT, AND TURNING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING,
STILL LESS THAN 10KT.
CONDITIONS DRASTICALLY CHANGE MONDAY WITH A APPROACH OF A STRONG
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING LOWERED IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS ALONG WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE STEADY RAINFALL, HEAVY AT
TIMES, AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST
INITIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CONTINUE AVIATION IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ/SPENDER
DISCUSSION...SPENDER
AVIATION...CJ/SPENDER
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