595
FXUS63 KFGF 190125
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
725 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERSPREADS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING WINTER IMPACTS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE SEVERITY AND LOCATION OF WINTER
IMPACTS, WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY TIED TO THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
- HIGHEST CHANCES TO RECEIVE WINTER STORM IMPACTS ARE STILL OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE REGION, BUT EXPANDED THIS A BIT ON THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN EDGES TO ENCOMPASS A SLIGHTLY WIDER AREA FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE SNOW/WIND/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
FORECAST IS ON TRACK, WITH FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THIS
UPDATE CYCLE IN THE NEAR TERM. RAIN AS SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN (SURFACE OBS 3-6SM WHERE
RETURNS ARE 35DBZ+ ON RADAR). THIS MATCHES THE TIMING/COVERAGE
PROGRESSION FROM HREF AND CURRENT FORECAST WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..SYNOPSIS
THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT ITS RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED ALL
THE WAY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SEEING LIGHT RAIN
REPORTED ALREADY AS FAR NORTH AS REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA. THIS
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING, THEN NORTHWARD TO AROUND WINNIPEG
BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THEN IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
A 12 HOUR PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT) THAT IT REMAINS IN PLACE,
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ITS GRIP ON THE NORTHERN
PLAINS (AS IT EXITS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST). 500MB RIDGING BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING, A STRONG SOUTHERLY MOISTURE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA. HAVE BEEN
LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS ALMOST A 100
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 0.50 INCHES EAST
OF THE RRV TO ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE TO THE WEST.
PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL HAVE SHOT UP TO
AROUND 70 PERCENT EAST OF THE RRV, BUT THAT TAPERS OFF QUICKLY
TO THE WEST OF THE VALLEY. SO QUITE A BIT OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.
..WINTER IMPACTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN FA ON TUESDAY AND
TRACKS TOWARD WINNIPEG, THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW IN SOME AREAS. THIS SHOULD OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION, BUT THE LATEST HREF IS SHOWING A POTENTIAL CHANGE
OVER IN THE "HIGHER" ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE RRV FROM FINLEY TO
WALHALLA NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOUNDINGS,
MANY ARE KEEPING IT FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, SO AM
MORE CONFIDENT IN THE EARLIER CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE
REGION, RATHER THAN FURTHER EAST. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DEVILS LAKE TO
FERGUS FALLS LINE. THE SNOW COMBINING WITH THE WIND SHOULD BEGIN
TO CREATE SOME VISIBILITY PROBLEMS. THE PROBABILITY FOR MORE
THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DECREASED SOMEWHAT TODAY, BUT REMAINS THE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. BASICALLY IT NOW SHOWS
ABOUT A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THE DL REGION FOR THE 6 INCHES
OR MORE, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL RIGHT AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH SURFACE LOW TRACK, TO
AROUND WINNIPEG, MAY PLAY PARTLY INTO THIS. THE ONLY OTHER
CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON WAS SEEING PROBABILITIES FOR 4 INCHES OR
MORE OF SNOW INCREASE JUST EAST OF THE RRV.
..UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS ALWAYS APPEARED TO BE ONE MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTH TEXAS, COMBINING AT SOME POINT WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OUT OF CANADA. DEALING WITH WAVE INTERACTIONS IS
ALWAYS TRICKY, AND THAT REMAINS THE CASE WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM. IF THE SURFACE LOW HOLDS LONGER NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER, IT IS POSSIBLE MORE OF THE SNOW WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH
AS WELL. IF MORE COLD AIR CAN GET DRAWN INTO IT, MORE SNOW COULD
STILL FALL ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES, THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF HOW
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GET WITH THE WIND DRIVEN SNOW. THE
CURRENT WIND FORECAST FOR THE DEVILS LAKE THROUGH SOUTHERN RRV
(HIGHER WIND CORRIDOR), STILL LOOKS TO HAVE A GUST POTENTIAL TO
40 TO 50 MPH.
..KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH BUT EXPANDED IT SLIGHTLY
WITH THE HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, DID NOT WANT TO SWITCH TO
WARNINGS QUITE YET. HOWEVER, DID WANT TO EXPAND THE WATCH AREA
SLIGHTLY. WITH THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA SNOW A LITTLE BROADER, WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED
THE WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. AT SOME POINT, WILL ALSO NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY,
BUT FELT THAT COULD WAIT AT THIS POINT TOO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION, AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND LOWERED CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT (MVFR TO IFR). A LOW
LEVEL JET IS SHOWN TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY (LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KBJI). MOST VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
WILL BE DRIVEN BY RAIN RATES, HOWEVER THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT AS INDICATED BY
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN FOG IMPACTS AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST, NORTHWEST, AND THEN
WEST, WHICH ARE ALL DIRECTIONS THAT DON'T TEND TO SUPPORT
ADVECTION FOG IN OUR REGION. AT THE MOST LIGHT FOG MAY JUST
RESULT IN MORE DYNAMIC VISIBILITY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 6SM
OUTSIDE OF PERIODS OF RAINFALL.
COLDER AIR AND A SECONDARY REGION OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE SYSTEM INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND (TOWARDS KDVL) SHOULD RESULT IN
A RAIN SNOW MIX AND EVENTUAL TRANSITIONING TO SNOW LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TUESDAY. WINDS ALSO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST DUE TO INCREASING GRADIENT/FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND THIS COULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS TO
VISIBILITY WHERE SNOW IS FALLING. THESE TYPES OF IMPACTS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED EAST OF KDVL DURING THIS TAF PERIOD BUT MAY NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR THE 02-09Z PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT FOR
KGFK/KFAR.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-054.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...DJR
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