449
FXUS63 KFGF 192037
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
237 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WITHIN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE, BUT THEY COULD LINGER FOR THE EVENING
COMMUTE AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..SYNOPSIS
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE LOW WAS SOMEWHERE UP IN THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE WINNIPEG AREA BY 6 PM, WHERE IT WILL PRETTY
MUCH HANG OUT UNTIL NOON-ISH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, IT RAPIDLY EXITS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. 500MB
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM, THE MAIN
QUESTION IS PROBABLY JUST HOW AMPLIFIED THE RIDGING IS. IT STILL
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM,
ALTHOUGH NOW IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE WAVES INVOLVED.
FOR THAT REASON, WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
..TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVEN THOUGH FAIRLY HEAVY WET SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING TODAY
(PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAKOTA TO LANGDON AREAS), THE GREATEST
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING RUSH PERIOD
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT IS WHEN THE MOST PEOPLE WILL BE ON THE
ROADS, WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY (MAINLY WEST OF THE RRV), SNOW
WILL BE COMING DOWN, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING (SO
IT WILL BE SLIPPERY). SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST WINTER EVENT OF
THE SEASON, PLAN EXTRA TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND HAVE A
WINTER SURVIVAL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE. NOT SAYING THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING PERIOD WILL BE THAT MUCH BETTER, BUT PLOWING AND
TREATMENT (WHERE NEEDED) MAY OCCUR BY THAT TIME.
OTHERWISE, HEADLINE DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE, BUT THERE
ARE STILL SOME THINGS TO WATCH. ONE OF THE MORE NOTABLE ONES IS
THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME UP WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS HAD STARTED TO SHOW UP AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY, BUT WAS A BIT FURTHER EAST, MORE SO ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE RRV, ESPECIALLY FROM FERTILE DOWN THROUGH DETROIT
LAKES AND FERGUS FALLS. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND
THE LOW, THIS COULD POSSIBLY BE EXPLAINED BY SOME SORT OF
UPSLOPE FLOW MOVING UP THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE RRV IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER, THE AREA HAS SHIFTED MORE INTO
THE RRV ITSELF NOW, SO AM STRUGGLING A BIT ON HOW TO EXPLAIN
IT. SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION ACTUALLY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME LESS ORGANIZED FRONTOGENESIS, BUT NOT REALLY
ANYTHING TO JUSTIFY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MUCH HIGHER THAN 3 TO 5
INCHES. EVEN WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD,
THINK THERE WILL STILL BE MELTING AND COMPACTION, SO STILL FEEL
GOOD WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY,
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A "LULL" AREA FOR SNOW DOWNWIND
OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TOWNER AND
NORTHERN BENSON COUNTIES. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT
PANS OUT.
ANOTHER SLIGHT DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME IS THAT
THE CORRIDOR FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS HAS PRETTY MUCH NOW SHIFTED
TO THE WEST OF THE RRV. YESTERDAY IT LOOKED TO BE FROM CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RRV. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT MEANS
THE CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING SNOW WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE WEST OF
THE RRV, AND MUCH LESS WITHIN THE RRV ITSELF. SO ALTHOUGH
BLOWING SNOW IS MENTIONED FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RRV,
IT MAY BE MORE WIND DRIVEN FALLING SNOW THAN TRADITIONAL BLOWING
SNOW. THE CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS GO THROUGH 6 PM
WEDNESDAY, AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THINGS ARE
PROGRESSING AND ADJUST AS NEED BE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
BASICALLY LOOKING LIKE A DIFFICULT 24 HOUR PERIOD TO FLY.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN EITHER MVFR OR IFR, VISIBILITIES WILL BE UP
AND DOWN, BUT WILL TREND DOWNWARD ONCE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
TYPE TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WINDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION TOO, SINCE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEAR
BEMIDJI NOW TO NEAR WINNIPEG BY 6 PM TONIGHT. AT THAT POINT, IT
WILL BASICALLY HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE
FINALLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS LOW
PLACEMENT, THE STRONGEST WIND GRADIENT WILL STAY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THEREFORE THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM DEVILS LAKE DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN RRV, INCLUDING KFAR. DURING THIS TAF PERIOD, SPEEDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. FOR THAT REASON,
MINIMIZED THE MENTION OF BLSN TO ONLY KFAR AND KDVL.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-030-038-039-049-052-053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
014-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ024-
026-028-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-
040.
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...GODON
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