050
FXUS63 KFGF 200535
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WITHIN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE, BUT THEY COULD LINGER FOR THE EVENING
COMMUTE AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPED NEAR THE SD/ND/MN
TRI STATE AREA NEAR THE BASE OF THE ELONGATING MID LEVEL LOW,
AND HAS RESULTED IN A SECONDARY DEFORMATION REGION AND ORGANIZED
BANDED AREA OF SNOW BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND FARGO. WITHIN THIS
AREA VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AND LIGHT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. THE MAIN DEFORMATION REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO OUR CWA AS THE
700 MB LOW CONTINUES TO ELONGATE AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
WARM AND OTHER THAN SOME REPORTS OF SLUSHY SPOTS (WHERE RATES
WERE HIGHER) MOST AREAS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ACCUMULATE (WHICH IS
WITHIN EXPECTATIONS). STRONGEST WINDS SO FAR HAVE REMAINED TO
THE WEST (AGAIN AS EXPECTED) AND THE SIGNAL FOR STRONGER WINDS
IN OUR AREA IS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EVENTUALLY COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND WHILE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE WITHIN
AREAS OF SNOW MAY DECREASE, SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AND
GROUND TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR MORE EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATION/POSSIBLE IMPACTS. HOW MUCH SNOW ACTUALLY
ACCUMULATIONS (TOTAL) WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THOUGH THE EVENT
AND LATEST DATA STILL FALLS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS TOTAL RANGES
IN OUR CURRENT WSW, SO I DO NOT PLAN ON SHIFTING OUR MESSAGING
AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LIGHT RETURNS AND REPORTS OF
LIGHT WEST SNOW ARE INCREASING OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER
VALLEY. THE MAIN REGION OF DEFORMATION IS STILL WEST, BUT WE
ARE STARTING TO SEE THE TREND REFLECTED IN CAMS OF
/SNOW FILLING I AS THE MID/UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO STRETCH
AND DEVELOP AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
OUR CWA. I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS IN
COVERAGE, OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST/EXPECTED
IMPACTS (REGARDING AMOUNTS/WIND).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..SYNOPSIS
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE LOW WAS SOMEWHERE UP IN THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE WINNIPEG AREA BY 6 PM, WHERE IT WILL PRETTY
MUCH HANG OUT UNTIL NOON-ISH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, IT RAPIDLY EXITS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. 500MB
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM, THE MAIN
QUESTION IS PROBABLY JUST HOW AMPLIFIED THE RIDGING IS. IT STILL
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM,
ALTHOUGH NOW IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE WAVES INVOLVED.
FOR THAT REASON, WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
..TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVEN THOUGH FAIRLY HEAVY WET SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING TODAY
(PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAKOTA TO LANGDON AREAS), THE GREATEST
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING RUSH PERIOD
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT IS WHEN THE MOST PEOPLE WILL BE ON THE
ROADS, WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY (MAINLY WEST OF THE RRV), SNOW
WILL BE COMING DOWN, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING (SO
IT WILL BE SLIPPERY). SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST WINTER EVENT OF
THE SEASON, PLAN EXTRA TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND HAVE A
WINTER SURVIVAL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE. NOT SAYING THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING PERIOD WILL BE THAT MUCH BETTER, BUT PLOWING AND
TREATMENT (WHERE NEEDED) MAY OCCUR BY THAT TIME.
OTHERWISE, HEADLINE DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE, BUT THERE
ARE STILL SOME THINGS TO WATCH. ONE OF THE MORE NOTABLE ONES IS
THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME UP WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS HAD STARTED TO SHOW UP AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY, BUT WAS A BIT FURTHER EAST, MORE SO ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE RRV, ESPECIALLY FROM FERTILE DOWN THROUGH DETROIT
LAKES AND FERGUS FALLS. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND
THE LOW, THIS COULD POSSIBLY BE EXPLAINED BY SOME SORT OF
UPSLOPE FLOW MOVING UP THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE RRV IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER, THE AREA HAS SHIFTED MORE INTO
THE RRV ITSELF NOW, SO AM STRUGGLING A BIT ON HOW TO EXPLAIN
IT. SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION ACTUALLY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME LESS ORGANIZED FRONTOGENESIS, BUT NOT REALLY
ANYTHING TO JUSTIFY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MUCH HIGHER THAN 3 TO 5
INCHES. EVEN WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD,
THINK THERE WILL STILL BE MELTING AND COMPACTION, SO STILL FEEL
GOOD WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY,
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A "LULL" AREA FOR SNOW DOWNWIND
OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TOWNER AND
NORTHERN BENSON COUNTIES. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT
PANS OUT.
ANOTHER SLIGHT DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME IS THAT
THE CORRIDOR FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS HAS PRETTY MUCH NOW SHIFTED
TO THE WEST OF THE RRV. YESTERDAY IT LOOKED TO BE FROM CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RRV. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT MEANS
THE CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING SNOW WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE WEST OF
THE RRV, AND MUCH LESS WITHIN THE RRV ITSELF. SO ALTHOUGH
BLOWING SNOW IS MENTIONED FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RRV,
IT MAY BE MORE WIND DRIVEN FALLING SNOW THAN TRADITIONAL BLOWING
SNOW. THE CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS GO THROUGH 6 PM
WEDNESDAY, AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THINGS ARE
PROGRESSING AND ADJUST AS NEED BE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO IFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH BRIEF DROPS TO LIFR ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN. CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE 700-1800 RANGE WITH MVFR EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AS THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE MUCH MORE VARIABLE, AS RAIN/SNOW CONTINUES
TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW, WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE RATES WITHIN
THE AREAS OF SNOW. IN ADDITION, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS TO
VISIBILITY (BEST CHANCES KDVL TO KFAR, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE AT
KGFK). ANY LINGERING SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WINDS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THAT
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS COULD LINGER WHERE BLOWABLE SNOW EXISTS
AFTER SNOW ENDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ008-
016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
014-015.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...DJR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page