916
FXUS63 KFGF 200942
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
342 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR TODAYS (WEDNESDAY) MORNING
FROM SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WITHIN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE, BUT THEY COULD LINGER FOR THE
EVENING COMMUTE AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB LOW NEAR THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER AT
09Z WILL BEGIN ITS TRECK SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
BECOMING ELONGATED AS IT ENDS UP IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
TODAY...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A LACK OF MOISTURE ROTATING WESTWARD
ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG WHILE MOISTURE
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ON THET WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM INTO ND AND PARTS OF WESTERN MN. OVERALL THOUGH RADAR
RETURNS AND OBS HAVE INDICATED LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW. 700 MB
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PRESENT JUST WEST OF THE UPPER LOW
TODAY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN
BUT MOISTURE CONTENT IS LACKING I DO BELIEVE FOR ANY HEAVY SNOW.
THUS IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE VERY HIGHER TOTALS (NEAR
6 INCHES THAT WERE PUT OUT BY MODELS FOR AREAS NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF GRAND FORKS/FARGO ARE TOO HIGH. THUS CONTINUED TREND OF LOWER
SLR RATIOS AND ALSO SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WPC QPF. NET RESULT WAS
FORECAST OF 2-3 INCHES GF/FARGO AND JUST EAST TO TRF/DETROIT
LAKES. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE, BUT ON THE OTHER HAND WITH RISK OF
FORCING THERE DONT WANT TO DISCOUNT IT EITHER. TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO AROUND 30 FAR
NORTHERN RRV AND NW MINNESTOA AS WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ACTUALLY
COME BACK SOUTH BEHIND THE UPPER LOW INTO NE ND/NW MN.
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY....WINDIER WITH NW WIND GUSTS 40-45
MPH DEVILS LAKE INTO FAR SE ND. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE VERY
LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SNOW AFTER 12Z OF 0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES DVL TO FORMAN ND.
FAR NORTHEAST FCST AREA AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS MOSTLY MISS
THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY LIMITED LIGHT SNOW.
..AFTER THIS SYSTEM
BRIEF 500 MB RIDGING MOVES BUT LOW LEVEL COOLING CONTINUES ESP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND. HIGHS ALL AREAS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING
MOST DAYS IN THE EXTENDED....TRENDING COLDER NEXT WEEK AFTER A
SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS WEEKEND GIVING
POTENTIALLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO IFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH BRIEF DROPS TO LIFR ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN. CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE 700-1800 RANGE WITH MVFR EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AS THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE MUCH MORE VARIABLE, AS RAIN/SNOW CONTINUES
TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW, WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE RATES WITHIN
THE AREAS OF SNOW. IN ADDITION, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS TO
VISIBILITY (BEST CHANCES KDVL TO KFAR, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE AT
KGFK). ANY LINGERING SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WINDS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THAT
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS COULD LINGER WHERE BLOWABLE SNOW EXISTS
AFTER SNOW ENDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-
016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-
007-014-015.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...DJR
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