204
FXUS63 KFGF 201738
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAVE PICKED UP TO 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 TO 60 MPH. THIS HAS LED TO
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF FALLING SNOW.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
FALLING SNOW, SOME BLOWING SNOW, AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
MINNESOTA IMPACTS WILL BE MORE HEAVILY TIED TO STRICTLY
SNOWFALL RATHER THAN WIND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO BLIZZARD WARNING. VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND ADJACENT AREAS IS FREQUENTLY
FALLING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 1/4 MILE AS WINDS INCREASE INTO
THE RANGE OF 30 TO 50 MPH. GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED FROM ROLLA TO CARRINGTON AND SPORADICALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, ALBEIT WITH LESS SNOW TO CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES.
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS THIS MORNING AS A
STRONGER BAND OF SNOW MOVES SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 719 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW COVERS THE AREA. SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN
FAR SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AT 12Z. RADAR RETURNS FROM KMVX AND
REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND ON ECHO
INTENSITY BUT THE LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH THE STRONG WNW WINDS
CAUSING VSBYS WIDESPREAD LESS THAN 1/2 MILE THRU DVL BASIN AND
NORTH CENTRAL ND. SNOWFALL REPORTS COMING IN HIGHLY VARIABLE
JUST DUE TO MEASUREMENT LOCATION ETC...ANYWHERE FROM 0.50 INCH
TO 3 INCHES SO FAR....WITH 3 INCHES AT LANGDON. I AM SURE THERE
ARE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OUT THERE BUT JUST NOT IN YET.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB LOW NEAR THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER AT
09Z WILL BEGIN ITS TREK SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
BECOMING ELONGATED AS IT ENDS UP IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
TODAY...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A LACK OF MOISTURE ROTATING WESTWARD
ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG WHILE MOISTURE
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ON THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM INTO ND AND PARTS OF WESTERN MN. OVERALL THOUGH RADAR
RETURNS AND OBS HAVE INDICATED LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW. 700 MB
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PRESENT JUST WEST OF THE UPPER LOW
TODAY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN
BUT MOISTURE CONTENT IS LACKING I DO BELIEVE FOR ANY HEAVY
SNOW. THUS IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE VERY HIGHER TOTALS
(NEAR 6 INCHES THAT WERE PUT OUT BY MODELS FOR AREAS NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF GRAND FORKS/FARGO ARE TOO HIGH. THUS CONTINUED
TREND OF LOWER SLR RATIOS AND ALSO SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WPC QPF.
NET RESULT WAS FORECAST OF 2-3 INCHES GF/FARGO AND JUST EAST TO
TRF/DETROIT LAKES. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE, BUT ON THE OTHER HAND
WITH RISK OF FORCING THERE DONT WANT TO DISCOUNT IT EITHER.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO
AROUND 30 FAR NORTHERN RRV AND NW MINNESOTA AS WARMER 925 MB
TEMPS ACTUALLY COME BACK SOUTH BEHIND THE UPPER LOW INTO NE
ND/NW MN.
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY....WINDIER WITH NW WIND GUSTS 40-45
MPH DEVILS LAKE INTO FAR SE ND. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE VERY
LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SNOW AFTER 12Z OF 0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES DVL TO FORMAN ND.
FAR NORTHEAST FCST AREA AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS MOSTLY MISS
THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY LIMITED LIGHT SNOW.
..AFTER THIS SYSTEM
BRIEF 500 MB RIDGING MOVES BUT LOW LEVEL COOLING CONTINUES ESP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND. HIGHS ALL AREAS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING
MOST DAYS IN THE EXTENDED....TRENDING COLDER NEXT WEEK AFTER A
SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS WEEKEND GIVING
POTENTIALLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
IFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT VISIBILITY. CEILINGS REMAIN RATHER LOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KDVL, AND KGFK.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THESE GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-
016-027-029-030-038-039-049-052-053.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-
014-015-024-026-028-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.
UPDATE...LYNCH/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...LYNCH
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