819
FXUS63 KFGF 210530
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN THIS EVENING, WITH A DUSTING OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY,
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200. THERE IS A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 1 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER, WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 200
CORRIDOR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
IT TOOK A BIT LONGER BUT THE MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RRV
WITH COVERAGE DECREASING. THIS IS CORRELATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ORIENTATED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THAT IS MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TIMING/COVERAGE
OF MEASURABLE SNOW, OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A
TENDENCY TOWARD DRY CONDITIONS OR JUST SCATTERED FLURRIES AFTER
THOSE REMNANT SHOWERS DISSIPATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..SYNOPSIS
H5 UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THUS REMOVING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ONGOING SNOW. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED MESOSCALE BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW HEADING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH CAMS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN AND
AROUND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT LOW; HOWEVER, VISIBILITY COULD BE
ADVERSELY IMPACTED BRIEFLY. WINDS GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS; HOWEVER,
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL SLOWLY AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. ANY POTENTIAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST WILL BE SLOW, BUT GRADUALLY WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SETTLING INTO THE AREA IN THE
COMING DAYS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION,
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL, BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLES
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER, WITH CURRENT
PROBABILITIES SHOWING ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OR MORE
SNOW FROM HIGHWAY 2, NORTHWARD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTED, WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ON MONDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SCATTERED FLURRIES) MAY LINGER
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO LINGER IN MN IN SIMILAR AREAS, BUT
PERSISTENCE/COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE
COMMON WITH AN AXIS OF LIFR CEILINGS IN NORTHWEST MN. VFR SHOULD
RETURN TO EASTERN ND WEST TO EAST THORUGH THE MORNING HOURS
(REACHING KGFK/KFAR BY LATE MORNING), THOUGH MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS ARE SHOWN TO LINGERING NORTHWEST MN INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
(THOUGH REMAIN ABOVE 12KT) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW 10KT THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION RELAXING THE SURFACE GRADIENT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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