745
FXUS63 KFGF 210917
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
317 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200. PROBABILITY FOR 1" ACCUMULATIONS OR HIGHER
GREATER THAN 40% IN THIS AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..SYNOPSIS
OVER EASTERN ND AND MN THIS MORNING, STRATUS FROM THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LINGER. SNOW ON THE GROUND IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOLER, IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIR MASS. A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH ON THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE STATE OF NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL USHER IN MORE COLDER AIR, PUTTING OUR HIGHS NEXT
WORK WEEK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
..WEEKEND SNOW
AS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, THE CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK LOCATION
CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME GUIDANCE HAS
HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN OTHERS, BUT THE GENERAL AREA FOR
GREATEST SNOWFALL IS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 200. PROBABILITIES FOR
1" OF ACCUMULATION OR MORE ARE 40 - 50% ALONG THE HWY 200 CORRIDOR,
AND INCREASE TO 80%+ ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IF WE BUMP UP
PROBABILITIES TO 2" OR MORE, THE 40 - 50% LINE MOVES NORTH TO HWY 2,
AND 70 - 80% ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS ON QUITE A FEW ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT LOOKS TO
AFFECT EASTERN ND MORE THAN NW MN. EVERYONE LOOKS TO SEE AT LEAST A
DUSTING EXCEPT OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES (CLOSER TO THE SD BORDER).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SCATTERED FLURRIES) MAY LINGER
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO LINGER IN MN IN SIMILAR AREAS, BUT
PERSISTENCE/COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE
COMMON WITH AN AXIS OF LIFR CEILINGS IN NORTHWEST MN. VFR SHOULD
RETURN TO EASTERN ND WEST TO EAST THORUGH THE MORNING HOURS
(REACHING KGFK/KFAR BY LATE MORNING), THOUGH MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS ARE SHOWN TO LINGERING NORTHWEST MN INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
(THOUGH REMAIN ABOVE 12KT) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW 10KT THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION RELAXING THE SURFACE GRADIENT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...DJR
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