706  
FXUS63 KFGF 211542  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
942 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND  
NORTH OF HWY 200. PROBABILITY FOR 1" ACCUMULATIONS OR HIGHER  
GREATER THAN 40% IN THIS AREA.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024  
 
CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH  
SATELLITE SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING TO THE WEST. THERE IS A  
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STRATUS OR FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN  
EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK, WHICH IS SUPPORTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST  
REMAINS ON TRACK, BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD  
AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024  
 
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
OVER EASTERN ND AND MN THIS MORNING, STRATUS FROM THE DEPARTING  
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LINGER. SNOW ON THE GROUND IS KEEPING  
TEMPERATURES COOLER, IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIR MASS. A TROUGH IS  
EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH ON THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW ALOFT  
OVER THE STATE OF NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE  
WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL USHER IN MORE COLDER AIR, PUTTING OUR HIGHS NEXT  
WORK WEEK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  
   
..WEEKEND SNOW
 
 
AS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, THE CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK LOCATION  
CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME GUIDANCE HAS  
HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN OTHERS, BUT THE GENERAL AREA FOR  
GREATEST SNOWFALL IS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 200. PROBABILITIES FOR  
1" OF ACCUMULATION OR MORE ARE 40 - 50% ALONG THE HWY 200 CORRIDOR,  
AND INCREASE TO 80%+ ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IF WE BUMP UP  
PROBABILITIES TO 2" OR MORE, THE 40 - 50% LINE MOVES NORTH TO HWY 2,  
AND 70 - 80% ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. UNCERTAINTY STILL  
REMAINS ON QUITE A FEW ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT LOOKS TO  
AFFECT EASTERN ND MORE THAN NW MN. EVERYONE LOOKS TO SEE AT LEAST A  
DUSTING EXCEPT OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES (CLOSER TO THE SD BORDER).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024  
 
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER BY THIS AFTERNOON AS  
THE STRATUS CLEARS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS MN TAF SITES, WHICH  
LOOK TO STAY BELOW MVFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LESSEN  
AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...AH/LYNCH  
DISCUSSION...AH  
AVIATION...AH  
 
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