265
FXUS63 KFGF 211731
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200. PROBABILITY FOR 1" ACCUMULATIONS OR HIGHER
GREATER THAN 40% IN THIS AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..SYNOPSIS
OVER EASTERN ND AND MN THIS MORNING, STRATUS FROM THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LINGER. SNOW ON THE GROUND IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOLER, IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIR MASS. A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH ON THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE STATE OF NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL USHER IN MORE COLDER AIR, PUTTING OUR HIGHS NEXT
WORK WEEK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
..WEEKEND SNOW
AS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, THE CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK LOCATION
CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME GUIDANCE HAS
HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN OTHERS, BUT THE GENERAL AREA FOR
GREATEST SNOWFALL IS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 200. PROBABILITIES FOR
1" OF ACCUMULATION OR MORE ARE 40 - 50% ALONG THE HWY 200 CORRIDOR,
AND INCREASE TO 80%+ ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IF WE BUMP UP
PROBABILITIES TO 2" OR MORE, THE 40 - 50% LINE MOVES NORTH TO HWY 2,
AND 70 - 80% ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS ON QUITE A FEW ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT LOOKS TO
AFFECT EASTERN ND MORE THAN NW MN. EVERYONE LOOKS TO SEE AT LEAST A
DUSTING EXCEPT OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES (CLOSER TO THE SD BORDER).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE KDVL AREA, BUT WITH FRESH SNOW
AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TONIGHT, THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST. THINK THAT EITHER STRATUS OR FOG WILL
REFORM ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK AND SITES
THAT ARE CLEARING OUT WILL FILL IN. THE ONE SPOILER MAY BE THE
HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE WEST, BUT THERE ARE ALSO QUITE A
FEW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO THE WEST ALSO. HAVE KDVL STAYING VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DROPPING DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS LATER
TONIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES, ALL ARE MVFR TO IFR
STILL, AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, CEILINGS WILL DROP BACK DOWN AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS POINT DON'T THINK THERE
WILL BE WIDESPREAD FOG, BUT DID PUT SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
OF 3-5SM AT KBJI. THE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS THAT ARE AROUND 15 KTS AND
GUSTING HIGHER AT TIMES WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR ALL
SITES BY THIS EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...JR
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