110
FXUS63 KFGF 212133
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WHERE CLOUD COVER
IS MINIMAL.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER,
WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..SYNOPSIS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING
WARMER 850MB TEMPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE TO
SEE EITHER LOW STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE WE
HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES. AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS ROUGHLY A 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY LOWER THAN 1
MILE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ONCE MORE THIS WEEKEND, STARTING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, THEN
WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS, WITH THE RESULTANT
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT,
WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
FURTHER SOUTH, ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR, THERE IS A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD
GENERALLY INDICATE A RANGE OF 1 TO 4 INCHES; HOWEVER, THE TRACK WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. IMPACT CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH ENSEMBLES PICKING UP ON POTENTIAL ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, CONSENSUS IS RATHER WEAK,
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING WINTRY CONDITIONS OVER THANKSGIVING
AND INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE KDVL AREA, BUT WITH FRESH SNOW
AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TONIGHT, THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST. THINK THAT EITHER STRATUS OR FOG WILL
REFORM ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK AND SITES
THAT ARE CLEARING OUT WILL FILL IN. THE ONE SPOILER MAY BE THE
HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE WEST, BUT THERE ARE ALSO QUITE A
FEW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO THE WEST ALSO. HAVE KDVL STAYING VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DROPPING DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS LATER
TONIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES, ALL ARE MVFR TO IFR
STILL, AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, CEILINGS WILL DROP BACK DOWN AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS POINT DON'T THINK THERE
WILL BE WIDESPREAD FOG, BUT DID PUT SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
OF 3-5SM AT KBJI. THE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS THAT ARE AROUND 15 KTS AND
GUSTING HIGHER AT TIMES WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR ALL
SITES BY THIS EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...JR
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