733
FXUS63 KFGF 220855
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
255 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, MAINLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PROBABILITY FOR 1" ACCUMULATIONS OR
HIGHER ARE 40 - 50% IN THIS AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
..SYNOPSIS
OVER EASTERN ND AND MN THIS MORNING, STRATUS IS BACK-BUILDING TO THE
WEST, JUST NOW MAKING IT OVER GRAND FORKS. THERE IS SOME FOG IN
AREAS OF NW MN, BUT IT IS PATCHY AT BEST. SNOW ON THE GROUND IS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER, IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIR MASS. A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH ON THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE OF NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED,
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AS
YOU MOVE INTO MID NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL USHER IN MORE
COLDER AIR, PUTTING OUR HIGHS NEXT WORK WEEK IN THE TEENS AND 20S,
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
..WEEKEND SNOW
AS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, GUIDANCE HAS GREATLY SHIFTED IN THE
OPPOSITE DIRECTION SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK LOCATION CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THERE'S A NEW TREND IN GUIDANCE WHERE SOME MEMBERS ARE DIGGING THE
TROUGH IN AS IT PASSES, CAUSING A HIGHER SNOW SWATH TO SHIFT INTO MN
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. GREATEST AREA FOR SNOW LOOKS NOW TO
BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, NOW INCLUDING THE BORDERING
COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA, AND COULD RETREAT INTO MANITOBA IF THE
CURRENT TREND KEEPS ON. PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF ACCUMULATION OR MORE
ARE 40 - 50% ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER; A STARK NORTHERLY
SHIFT. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2 NOW ARE LOOKING AT 30% CHANCE
FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF ACCUMULATION. DETERMINISTIC AMOUNTS SUGGEST
AROUND 1 - 2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND A MERE
DUSTING FOR AREAS IN BETWEEN I-94 AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON QUITE A FEW ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM, SO
HARD TO SAY WHAT IMPACTS COULD BE SEEN IN THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024
LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH IFR CEILINGS (SOME POCKETS OF LIFR)
CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NORTHWEST MN, WITH IMPACTS TO KTVF AND
KBJI. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS JUST EAST OF
KGFK/KFAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER IT COULD BE CLOSE
MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SO THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE FOR MVFR TO IFR IMPACTS AT THOSE SITES. THERE IS STILL A
SIGNAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE 07-14Z PERIOD IN NORTHWEST MN.
LIGHT FOG IS MORE LIKELY, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF
LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS. VFR IS FAVORED IN ND FRIDAY, BUT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE SHOWN BY ALL GUIDANCE TO LINGER IN NORTHWEST MN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE RABIDLY DECREASING AND SHOULD BECOME
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE (UNDER 5KT). A WEAK GRADIENT
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS INITIAL SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
PREVAIL 5-10KT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...DJR
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