020
FGUS73 KFGF 271656
ESFFGF
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-
135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-
081-091-095-097-099-281200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1056 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
..RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
AND ITS MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.
...MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE SPRING FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH BASIN...
* THIS 90-DAY OUTLOOK COVERS THE PERIOD FROM 3/3/2025 TO 6/1/2025.
OUTLOOK SUMMARY
* PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING MAJOR, MODERATE, MINOR FLOOD STAGE...
MAJOR FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW RISK (LESS THAN 35 PERCENT CHANCE) OF MAJOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE BASIN.
MODERATE FLOODING...
THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK (35 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE) OF MODERATE
FLOODING AT FARGO/MOORHEAD AND OSLO ON THE RED RIVER. IN NORTH
DAKOTA, THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF MODERATE FLOODING AT ABERCROMBIE ON
THE WILD RICE RIVER.
THERE IS A LOW RISK (LESS THAN 35 PERCENT CHANCE) OF MODERATE
FLOODING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
MINOR FLOODING...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK (GREATER THAN 65 PERCENT CHANCE) OF MINOR
FLOODING AT GRAND FORKS/EAST GRAND FORKS AND PEMBINA ON THE RED
RIVER. IN MINNESOTA, THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF MINOR FLOODING AT SABIN
ON THE SOUTH BRANCH BUFFALO RIVER, DILWORTH ON THE BUFFALO RIVER, AND
HALLOCK ON THE TWO RIVERS RIVER.
THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK (35 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE) OF MINOR FLOODING
AT WAHPETON AND DRAYTON ON THE RED RIVER. IN MINNESOTA, THERE IS A
MEDIUM RISK OF MINOR FLOODING AT HENDRUM ON THE WILD RICE RIVER AND
CROOKSTON ON THE RED LAKE RIVER. IN NORTH DAKOTA, THERE IS A MEDIUM
RISK OF MINOR FLOODING AT MAPLETON ON THE MAPLE RIVER.
THERE IS A LOW RISK (LESS THAN 35 PERCENT CHANCE) OF MINOR
FLOODING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE CONDITIONS WHICH AFFECT EACH OF THE SEVERAL
FACTORS THAT SIGNIFICANTLY DETERMINE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING WITHIN THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH ARE
DISCUSSED BELOW:
* FALL AND WINTER PRECIPITATION AND SNOWPACK...
OVERALL, FALL PRECIPITATION (SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER 2024) WAS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER, THE FALL SEASON DID END WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL NOVEMBER PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH SATURATED SOILS BEFORE FREEZING UP.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUED THROUGH THE WINTER, ALLOWING
ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BASIN AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
* RIVER FLOWS...
AT THE END OF DECEMBER, USGS ANALYSES INDICATED THE RED RIVER AND
ITS TRIBUTARIES WERE FLOWING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTH) DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL NOVEMBER
PRECIPITATION.
* FROST DEPTHS...
MINIMAL TO NO SNOWPACK EARLY IN THE WINTER, FOLLOWED BY STRETCHES
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LED TO THE FORMATION OF A DEEP FROST
LAYER. CURRENTLY, FROST DEPTH VALUES RANGE FROM 35 TO 50 INCHES
ACROSS THE BASIN ALTHOUGH SOME THAWING OF THE TOP LAYER OF SOIL HAS
OCCURRED DUE TO RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...
SNOWFALL (AND ASSOCIATED WATER CONTENT) SINCE DECEMBER 1 IS
RUNNING 25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL, LOWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN AND UP INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. RECENT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK TO COMMENCE WITH
CURRENT SNOW DEPTHS RANGING FROM ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN TO UP
TO 10 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
* FACTORS YET TO BE DETERMINED...
- FURTHER SNOWPACK GROWTH,
- RATE OF SNOWMELT/THAW,
- HEAVY RAIN ON SNOW OR FROZEN GROUND DURING THAW OR PEAK FLOOD,
- HEAVY RAIN ON ICE-COVERED RIVERS CAUSING SHORT-TERM ICE JAMS.
* SHORT TERM WEATHER FORECAST...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINOR AT THIS
TIME.
* LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK...
CLIMATE OUTLOOKS NOW INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
MARCH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK AND SLOWLY
THAW FROZEN SOILS. WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY PREDICTED, ANY RAINFALL ON FROZEN GROUND (OR ANY LINGERING
SNOWPACK) WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST IMPORTANT FLOOD RISK FACTOR.
NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
THE NEXT 2025 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY,
MARCH 13, 2025.
FLOOD OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES TABLES
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS TWO SECTIONS: THE FIRST GIVES THE
CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING
THEIR MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY. THE SECOND
GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE RIVER
STAGES LISTED.
..RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY
VALID FROM MARCH 03, 2025 TO JUNE 01, 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS), OR NORMAL,
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL, OR NORMAL, CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
WAHPETON 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 53 59 20 28 <5 17
HICKSON 30.0 34.0 38.0 : 15 27 <5 14 <5 <5
FARGO 18.0 25.0 30.0 : 89 83 36 40 13 26
HALSTAD 26.0 32.0 37.5 : 27 38 8 22 <5 12
GRAND FORKS 28.0 40.0 46.0 : 67 60 17 31 <5 11
OSLO 26.0 30.0 36.0 : 75 63 60 56 5 18
DRAYTON 32.0 38.0 42.0 : 48 48 23 33 <5 12
PEMBINA 39.0 44.0 49.0 : 66 52 33 43 9 22
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
SABIN 13.0 15.0 19.0 : 85 61 13 17 <5 <5
HAWLEY 8.0 9.0 11.0 : 33 41 11 25 <5 <5
DILWORTH 13.0 20.0 26.0 : 88 70 14 21 <5 <5
TWIN VALLEY 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 18 <5 8 <5 <5
HENDRUM 20.0 28.0 32.0 : 49 53 8 22 <5 7
SHELLY 14.0 20.0 23.0 : 7 28 <5 11 <5 6
CLIMAX 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 8 25 <5 12 <5 8
HIGH LANDING 12.0 12.5 13.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
CROOKSTON 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 56 50 12 27 5 9
ABOVE WARREN 67.0 71.0 75.0 : 8 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
ALVARADO 106.0 108.0 110.0 : 27 26 10 17 <5 <5
HALLOCK 802.0 806.0 810.0 : 72 62 24 41 <5 10
ROSEAU 16.0 18.0 19.0 : <5 21 <5 13 <5 8
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
ABERCROMBIE 20.0 22.0 28.0 : 46 40 38 34 7 20
VALLEY CITY 15.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 10 <5 7 <5 6
LISBON 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 11 <5 10 <5 7
KINDRED 16.0 19.0 20.5 : 10 20 <5 11 <5 10
WEST FARGO DVRSN 18.0 20.0 21.0 : 6 12 <5 11 <5 10
HARWOOD 84.0 86.0 91.0 : 15 26 12 21 6 10
ENDERLIN 9.5 12.0 14.0 : 26 26 7 11 <5 <5
MAPLETON 18.0 21.0 23.0 : 41 38 13 18 <5 5
HILLSBORO 10.0 13.0 16.0 : 12 19 <5 10 <5 <5
MINTO 6.0 8.0 11.0 : 19 23 <5 9 <5 <5
WALHALLA 11.0 16.0 18.0 : 13 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
NECHE 18.0 19.0 20.5 : 26 27 24 26 14 20
LEGEND:
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION ( " " NORMAL CONDITIONS)
FT = FEET (ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM)
..RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE
VALID FROM MARCH 03, 2025 TO JUNE 01, 2025
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
WAHPETON 8.5 9.0 10.1 11.2 12.6 14.3 14.7
HICKSON 15.3 16.6 19.4 22.1 26.8 31.5 33.1
FARGO 17.0 17.5 19.7 22.4 27.2 32.2 34.6
HALSTAD 12.7 13.4 16.9 21.3 26.5 31.7 35.6
GRAND FORKS 21.8 22.7 26.7 31.5 38.1 42.0 44.3
OSLO 19.5 20.7 26.2 31.7 34.3 35.5 36.4
DRAYTON 20.8 21.4 26.1 31.7 37.3 39.7 41.1
PEMBINA 30.3 32.1 36.9 42.2 46.2 48.6 50.4
MINNESOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
SOUTH FORK BUFFALO RIVER.....
SABIN 12.6 12.7 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.1 16.1
BUFFALO RIVER.....
HAWLEY 5.3 5.6 6.2 7.3 8.6 9.0 9.3
DILWORTH 12.3 12.9 15.1 17.1 19.3 20.9 21.6
WILD RICE RIVER.....
TWIN VALLEY 4.6 4.8 5.6 6.5 7.7 8.7 10.0
HENDRUM 12.2 13.8 17.0 19.9 23.6 27.4 28.9
MARSH RIVER.....
SHELLY 6.9 7.7 8.8 9.5 11.2 12.9 14.9
SAND HILL RIVER.....
CLIMAX 9.1 9.7 11.2 11.8 15.5 19.1 22.2
RED LAKE RIVER.....
HIGH LANDING 3.6 4.2 5.0 6.3 8.2 9.1 10.0
CROOKSTON 10.2 10.6 12.6 15.5 17.4 20.7 23.2
SNAKE RIVER.....
ABOVE WARREN 62.6 62.8 63.3 64.1 65.1 66.5 68.1
ALVARADO 99.6 100.3 101.1 103.1 106.3 108.0 109.4
TWO RIVERS RIVER.....
HALLOCK 799.6 800.2 801.7 804.0 805.5 807.5 808.8
ROSEAU RIVER.....
ROSEAU 8.8 9.0 9.7 11.1 13.1 15.5 16.0
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
WILD RICE RIVER.....
ABERCROMBIE 12.7 13.5 15.2 19.5 24.2 27.4 29.3
SHEYENNE RIVER.....
VALLEY CITY 5.8 6.1 6.9 8.4 11.0 12.0 12.8
LISBON 5.3 5.5 6.4 8.1 10.8 11.9 14.5
KINDRED 6.7 6.9 7.9 9.9 12.9 15.8 18.8
WEST FARGO DVRSN 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.6 13.0 15.4 18.7
HARWOOD 75.3 75.5 76.0 78.2 80.1 86.6 91.2
MAPLE RIVER.....
ENDERLIN 5.4 5.8 7.0 8.0 9.7 11.3 12.4
MAPLETON 11.8 12.7 14.0 16.9 19.5 21.2 22.5
GOOSE RIVER.....
HILLSBORO 3.4 3.6 4.2 5.3 7.5 10.3 12.6
FOREST RIVER.....
MINTO 3.2 3.3 3.8 4.3 5.1 6.5 7.5
PEMBINA RIVER.....
WALHALLA 6.0 6.2 7.0 7.8 9.6 12.0 13.3
NECHE 10.8 11.4 13.1 15.0 18.1 20.9 21.1
THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS COMMUNITY HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (CHPS). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER LEVELS AND
SOIL CONDITIONS USING 70 YEARS (1949-2019) OF PAST PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED FOR THOSE PAST
YEARS DURING THE TIME-FRAME OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THESE CRESTS CAN
THEN BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST AND ASSIGNED AN EXCEEDANCE
PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE, FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS, THE LOWEST
RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT OF THE
CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT, IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).
A YOUTUBE VIDEO ON "HOW TO INTERPRET RIVER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS" IS AT:
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=PSOEGVSNPV4
THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY USING THEM AS
AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER
LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE NWS IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREA'S DECISION
SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP WITH LONG-RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND
RESPONSE READINESS. THIS OUTLOOK IS A PART OF NOAA'S NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE'S NWPS (NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION SERVICE).
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES
THE NWPS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
EACH MONTH TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND FRIDAY AFTER
MID-MONTH. HOWEVER, SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE
ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES LEADING UP TO THE SPRING MELT PERIOD, USUALLY
ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING
IN EARLY APRIL, DEPENDING ON THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS, ALONG WITH EXPLANATIONS FOR INTERPRETING THEM,
ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS NWPS WEB PAGE:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS OR WEATHER.GOV/FGF
THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES" TAB ABOVE THE MAP.
CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE BASINS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEBSITE, AS WELL AS 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN RIVER LEVELS AT
FORECAST POINTS ARE IN OR NEAR FLOOD.
ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH
OR AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
REFER TO THE SEPARATE DEVILS LAKE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE LEVELS AND
LOW-WATER NON-EXCEEDANCE LEVELS.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGRANDFORKS
AND ON X AT: @NWSGRANDFORKS.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FGF
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