053
FXUS65 KFGZ 281702
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1002 AM MST FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING WITH
IT SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
COOLER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
WE MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS IN YAVAPAI
COUNTY TODAY AND A BIT LATER TIMING FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER BLACK MESA AND THE FOUR CORNERS MORE TOWARD THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IN ANY CASE, WE'RE ONLY FORECASTING A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AT
BEST.
PREV DISCUSSION /350 AM MST/...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE WE
HAVE HAD LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS. WHILE THE NBM GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING ALMOST NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY ONLY AROUND
A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA WITH WINDS
AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS, SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS OF ARIZONA.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ONCE THAT TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY, THE FLOW BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A BIT AND WARM. A FEW WEAK TROUGHS WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION STAYING DRY. AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
INDICATE A MORE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, THIS FAR OUT THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TIMING,
STRENGTH, AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH/LOW WILL BE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE CLUSTERS VARY QUITE A BIT WITH A 60/40 SPLIT ON A
STRONG LOW OR TROUGH CROSSING ARIZONA. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 28/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 29/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS/VIRGA BETWEEN 18Z-06Z. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOK FOR SW WINDS 15-25 KTS, GUSTING BETWEEN 30-40
KTS. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 03Z.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 29/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 31/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. EXPECT W-SW WINDS 10-20 KTS,
GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS, EACH AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
FORECAST TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SATURDAY
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
AND VIRGA THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING DRY ON SATURDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 MPH TODAY, BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. GUSTS UP
30-40 MPH POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH AROUND 15-30% TODAY,
DECREASING TO 10-20% ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE AZ/UT BORDER ON TUESDAY. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND MINIMUM RH AROUND
10-20% EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/MEOLA
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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