557
FXUS65 KFGZ 290518
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1018 PM MST FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT VIRGA AND
LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY IS EXITING TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED, BUT WON'T BE
COMPLETELY CALM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DUE ON SATURDAY. DETAILS ON
SATURDAY AND BEYOND CAN BE FOUND IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION /459 PM MST/
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE COMING DAYS DELIVERING GENERALLY
BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT TIMES.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE PRODUCED
UPWARD MOTIONS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
SHOWERS, PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A PAIR OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL BRUSH THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO
20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH EACH DAY ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF COOL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER ON SATURDAY BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
FOR MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH CONTINUING.
LOOK FOR A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UNDER THE HIGH.
LOOKING AT TUESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO POINT TO A
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS.
COOLER AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE NEARLY CERTAIN AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA.
HEADING THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK EACH TROUGH WILL
BE STRONGER DELIVERING CHANCES FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. EVEN WITHIN THIS SCENARIO THERE
ARE A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODEST WINTER-LIKE STORM. WE'LL KNOW MORE
AS THE TIME APPROACHES SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 29/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 30/06Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO SW 15-25KTS, GUSTS
30-35KTS BETWEEN 16-18Z. DECREASING TO SW 5-10KTS AFTER 03Z
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 30/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 01/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, INCREASING TO SW 15-25KTS,
GUSTS 30-35KTS BETWEEN 16-19Z EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OUTLOOK.
FIRE WEATHER...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 MPH, GUSTING 30-40 MPH, EACH AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH
VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-25%.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK, BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY. 15-30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MINIMUM RH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 15-30%. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH ON MONDAY,
WESTERLY WINDS 15-25 MPH ON TUESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
BY WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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