363
FXUS65 KFGZ 291130
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
430 AM MST SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A COUPLE OF TROUGHS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY, THOUGH THE MOST WE WILL
SEE FROM THEM IS THE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
TROUGH AND OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLE NEAR THE
AZ/UTAH BORDER WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PASSING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOME
INTO LATE TONIGHT BUT WE DON'T LOSE THE WINDS COMPLETELY. ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL ARRIVE BUT IT IS DRIER THAN THE LAST
ONE. A FEW SPRINKLES TOWARDS THE AZ/UTAH BORDER BUT NOTHING TO
REALLY WRITE HOME ABOUT THERE. THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR
SPEEDS TO THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND EACH
TROUGH, KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE EACH DAY.
MONDAY...A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN TROUGHS AS WE MANAGE TO HAVE A WEAK
RIDGE PUSH IN THROUGH THE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35
MPH THROUGH THE DAY. WITH NO TROUGHS CROSSING THE REGION, EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A BIT AND WARM ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SEVERAL TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE WEEK. THE FIRST ARRIVES ON TUESDAY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND A
TRACK THAT KEEPS IT MORE TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING ONLY SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE AZ/UTAH BORDER. THE NEXT TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH SOME CHANCES EXPANDING TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
INCLUDING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH IS EVEN DEEPER THAN THE LAST AND ARRIVES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH EACH CONSECUTIVE TROUGH WE WILL
SEE COLDER AIR PUSH IN, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF SNOW
MIXING IN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LAST TROUGH TO ARRIVE IS BY
FAR THE STRONGEST BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE AS IT CROSSES OUR AREA. WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING,
DEPTH, COLD AIR, AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR IT
TO SEE JUST HOW IT MAY IMPACT OUR REGION. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 29/12Z UNTIL SUNDAY 30/12Z
IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN NORTH OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE 18Z-00Z. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO SW
15-25KTS, GUSTS 30-35KTS BETWEEN 16-18Z. DECREASING TO SW 5-10KTS
AFTER 03Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 30/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 01/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, INCREASING TO SW 15-25KTS,
GUSTS 30-35KTS BETWEEN 18-01Z BOTH DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY. RH VALUES TODAY
WILL BE MARGINALLY DRY AND THERE WILL BE LESS WIND ON SUNDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH, GUSTING 30-40 MPH TODAY AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-20 WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IS 15 TO 30 PERCENT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MINIMUM RH VALUES 15 TO
30 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH ON MONDAY, WESTERLY WINDS 15-
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ON TUESDAY, AND LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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