965
FXUS65 KFGZ 291704
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1004 AM MST SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
UPDATE
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATE
UNTIL THE NORMAL AFTERNOON PACKAGE. LOOK FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER.
PREV DISCUSSION /430 AM MST/...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A COUPLE OF TROUGHS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY, THOUGH THE MOST WE WILL
SEE FROM THEM IS THE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
TROUGH AND OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLE NEAR THE
AZ/UTAH BORDER WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PASSING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOME
INTO LATE TONIGHT BUT WE DON'T LOSE THE WINDS COMPLETELY. ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL ARRIVE BUT IT IS DRIER THAN THE LAST
ONE. A FEW SPRINKLES TOWARDS THE AZ/UTAH BORDER BUT NOTHING TO
REALLY WRITE HOME ABOUT THERE. THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR
SPEEDS TO THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND EACH
TROUGH, KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE EACH DAY.
MONDAY...A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN TROUGHS AS WE MANAGE TO HAVE A WEAK
RIDGE PUSH IN THROUGH THE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35
MPH THROUGH THE DAY. WITH NO TROUGHS CROSSING THE REGION, EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A BIT AND WARM ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SEVERAL TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE WEEK. THE FIRST ARRIVES ON TUESDAY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND A
TRACK THAT KEEPS IT MORE TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING ONLY SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE AZ/UTAH BORDER. THE NEXT TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH SOME CHANCES EXPANDING TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
INCLUDING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH IS EVEN DEEPER THAN THE LAST AND ARRIVES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH EACH CONSECUTIVE TROUGH WE WILL
SEE COLDER AIR PUSH IN, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF SNOW
MIXING IN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LAST TROUGH TO ARRIVE IS BY
FAR THE STRONGEST BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE AS IT CROSSES OUR AREA. WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING,
DEPTH, COLD AIR, AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR IT
TO SEE JUST HOW IT MAY IMPACT OUR REGION. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 29/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 30/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE BETWEEN 18Z-02Z. EXPECT SW WINDS 15-25
KTS, GUSTING NEAR 40 KTS THROUGH 03Z. AFTERWARDS, WINDS GENERALLY
S-SW 10 KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 30/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 01/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY, PRIMARILY NORTH OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE. W-SW WINDS
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AT 15-25 KTS, GUSTING 30-45 KTS. LIGHTER
WINDS FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY. RH VALUES TODAY
WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25% EACH AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
15-25 MPH, GUSTING 30-40 MPH TODAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IS 15 TO 30 PERCENT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MINIMUM RH VALUES 15 TO
30 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH ON MONDAY, WESTERLY WINDS 15-
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ON TUESDAY, AND LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/MEOLA
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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