464
FXUS65 KFGZ 292120
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
220 PM MST SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A COMPLICATED PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA OVER THE COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER
CLOSED-LOW DEVELOPS OVER ARIZONA AND REMAINS OVER THE STATE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNSET, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ON SUNDAY...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20
MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
BUT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY BUT BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. EXCEPT FOR A FEW
VIRGA SHOWERS AND A STRAY SPRINKLE THE SUNDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
DRY.
FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL TURN
A BIT WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS BUT WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING, STRONGER THAN ON SUNDAY, SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TOPING OUT IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED-LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WINDY BUT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN SOME AFTER THAT SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER,
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THIS IS
A COMPLICATED PATTERN AND FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS WITH
QUITE A FEW RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES. THE BEST WE CAN SAY RIGHT NOW
IS BE PREPARED FOR COLD AND DAMP WEATHER WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERS TO
AROUND 5500 FEET.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 29/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 30/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE BETWEEN 18Z-02Z. EXPECT SW WINDS 15-25
KTS, GUSTING NEAR 40 KTS THROUGH 03Z. AFTERWARDS, WINDS GENERALLY
S-SW 10 KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 30/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 01/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY, PRIMARILY NORTH OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE. W-SW WINDS
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AT 15-25 KTS, GUSTING 30-45 KTS. LIGHTER
WINDS FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
EXPECT A BRIEF WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-25%. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN AZ.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY, INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH ON TUESDAY,
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THURSDAY. AY. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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