743
FXUS65 KFGZ 300518
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1018 PM MST SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR
SO AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT, UNDER 10 MPH, OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT'S, AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
A WEAK, LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CONFINED
TO UTAH AND COLORADO. ZONAL, STABLE FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS, 20-35 MPH. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EVEN HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GROW STRONGER.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALL ON THE TABLE.
PREV DISCUSSION /353 PM MST/
A COMPLICATED PATTERN IS SETTING
UP FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER CLOSED-LOW DEVELOPS OVER ARIZONA AND REMAINS
OVER THE STATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNSET, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ON SUNDAY...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20
MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
BUT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY BUT BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. EXCEPT FOR A FEW
VIRGA SHOWERS AND A STRAY SPRINKLE THE SUNDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
DRY.
FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL TURN
A BIT WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS BUT WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING, STRONGER THAN ON SUNDAY, SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TOPING OUT IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED-LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WINDY BUT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN SOME AFTER THAT SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER,
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THIS IS
A COMPLICATED PATTERN AND FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS WITH
QUITE A FEW RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES. THE BEST WE CAN SAY RIGHT NOW
IS BE PREPARED FOR COLD AND DAMP WEATHER WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERS TO
AROUND 5500 FEET.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 30/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 31/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS, BECOMING BKN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, UNDER 10 KTS, OVERNIGHT
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS, 15-30 KTS, FROM
16Z-02Z.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 31/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 02/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. SLIGHT
CHANCES (15-20%) FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE AZ/UT BORDER ON
TUESDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ON TUESDAY, 30-40 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
EXPECT A BRIEF WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10 TO 25%. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN AZ. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ON SUNDAY, INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY.
LOOK FOR WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH ON
TUESDAY, WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, AND LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...LAGUARDIA/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...LAGUARDIA
FIRE WEATHER...LAGUARDIA/KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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