133
FXUS65 KFGZ 300845
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
145 AM MST SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING MORE GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE AZ/UTAH BORDER BUT THIS TROUGH IS VERY MOISTURE
STARVED AND EVEN SPRINKLES WILL BE LIMITED. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST,
WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE.
MONDAY...WHILE WE SHOULD SEE BRIEF RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY, THE GRADIENT REALLY STARTS TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
TROUGH. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AS A STRONG JET CROSSES THE
REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE
STRONGEST. EXPECT SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE IN AREAS THAT ARE
JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ADVISORY RUNS FROM 11
AM MST (NOON MDT) THROUGH 2 AM MST (3 AM MDT).
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL START
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO ARIZONA ON TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY THE
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, AND ADDITIONAL WIND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN INTO THE REGION DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THERE ARE STILL MANY ISSUES WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH TIMING, STRENGTH, AND MOISTURE SO WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. JUST KNOW IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 30/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 31/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS, BECOMING BKN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, UNDER 10 KTS, OVERNIGHT
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS, 15-30 KTS, FROM
16Z-02Z.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 31/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 02/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. SLIGHT
CHANCES (15-20%) FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE AZ/UT BORDER ON
TUESDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ON TUESDAY, 30-40 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND MONDAY
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 14 TO 24%. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN AZ. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY, INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COOLING TREND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOSTLY
ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH ON TUESDAY, SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
ON WEDNESDAY, AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ MONDAY TO 2 AM MST /3 AM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR AZZ004-006-007-011>016-039-040.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...LAGUARDIA
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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