586
FXUS65 KFGZ 301706
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1006 AM MST SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
MILD AND BREEZY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TODAY. WE CAN'T
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND IN
FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA, BUT THAT WILL BE THE MAIN MOISTURE IMPACT
FROM THE WEAK PASSING TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST REMAINS
IN GOOD SHAPE, SO NO SHORT-TERM UPDATES WERE NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION /433 AM MST/...TODAY
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING MORE GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE AZ/UTAH BORDER BUT THIS TROUGH IS VERY MOISTURE
STARVED AND EVEN SPRINKLES WILL BE LIMITED. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST,
WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE.
MONDAY...WHILE WE SHOULD SEE BRIEF RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY, THE GRADIENT REALLY STARTS TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
TROUGH. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AS A STRONG JET CROSSES THE
REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE
STRONGEST. EXPECT SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE IN AREAS THAT ARE
JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ADVISORY RUNS FROM 11
AM MST (NOON MDT) THROUGH 2 AM MST (3 AM MDT).
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL START
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO ARIZONA ON TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY THE
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, AND ADDITIONAL WIND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN INTO THE REGION DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THERE ARE STILL MANY ISSUES WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH TIMING, STRENGTH, AND MOISTURE SO WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. JUST KNOW IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 30/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 31/18Z
LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER VARIABLE MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 15-30 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 02Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
5-15 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 31/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 02/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST UNDER VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
STRONG AND GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON, 15-25 KTS GUSTING TO 25-35 KTS ON
MONDAY THEN 20-30 KTS GUSTING TO 35-45 KTS ON TUESDAY. THE
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW
LINE. SLIGHT CHANCES (15-20%) FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND MONDAY
WINDY AND DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST. LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH
TODAY, INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ON MONDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 15 TO 25%. NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH ON TUESDAY TURNING LIGHTER THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ MONDAY TO 2 AM MST /3 AM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR AZZ004-006-007-011>016-039-040.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY/MEOLA
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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