313
FXUS65 KFGZ 302029
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
129 PM MST SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO RETURN BY MID-WEEK.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS A RESULT OF THE UPCOMING UNSETTLED PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORT-WAVE IS BOBBLING ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY, RESULTING IN BREEZY WINDS AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. THE FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LEFT IN OUR CWA ARE ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES, WITH DRY/CLEARING CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A ZONAL FLOW
WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK. FROM THIS PATTERN, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANY AREAS
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN
20-30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR EASTERN ARIZONA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WE
ARE GOING TO WAIT ON THAT FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY, A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COOLER/WETTER PATTERN WILL KICK OFF WITH A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 20-55%, WITH THE GREATER ODDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS ON THE COLDER SIDE, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION (0.5-1.5")
IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS ABOVE 6000'. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A
FLURRY/DUSTING DOWN TO 5000'. SHOWERS LOOK TO START EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, A CLOSED LOW FROM THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LONG-WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO FORM SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CA/AZ
BORDER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL UNCERTAIN OF HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT, BUT THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF ARIZONA. SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS SEEM TO ROLE IN WITH
EVERY UPDATED MODEL RUN, BUT AT LEAST THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT
ON THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK. ONLY TIME WILL TELL ON THE DETAILS THOUGH.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 30/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 31/18Z
LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER VARIABLE MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 15-30 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 02Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
5-15 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 31/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 02/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST UNDER VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
STRONG AND GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON, 15-25 KTS GUSTING TO 25-35 KTS ON
MONDAY THEN 20-30 KTS GUSTING TO 35-45 KTS ON TUESDAY. THE
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW
LINE. SLIGHT CHANCES (15-20%) FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO
25 MPH GUSTING UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH EACH AFTERNOON, STRONGEST FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25% RESULTING IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ARIZONA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SNOW LEVEL DIPPING AS LOW AS 5000 FEET.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ MONDAY TO 2 AM MST /3 AM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR AZZ004-006-007-011>016-039-040.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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