089
FXUS65 KFGZ 310306
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
807 PM MST SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND MAYBE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER A MILD DAY FOR
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED.
DISCUSSION
WEAK S/WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH AND
NORTH OF OUR STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS A LARGER, LONG-WAVE
TROUGH SLOWLY SETTLES INTO THE WEST LATER THIS WEEK.
MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND WINDY, JUST A TAD WINDIER THAN
TODAY AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED. THIS LOOKS GOOD. WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ANS THE MAIN
TROUGH STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THE FIRST NOTICEABLE PRECIPITATION MAKER
AND COLD TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY, WITH A DEEP AND COOL TROUGH THEN
STAYING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AS FOR AS THE SHOT TERM, WINDS HAVE DIED OFF AND SKIES RE MAINLY
CLEAR. THE 00Z SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY, SO THIS MAKES SENSE. NO SHORT
TERM UPDATES ARE NEEDED TONIGHT, THE WIND ADVISORY STARTS AT 11 AM
MST MONDAY.
AVIATION...MONDAY 31/00Z THROUGH TUESDAY 01/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED UNDER VARIABLE MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS ARE W-SW 10-
20 KTS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS THROUGH 03Z, BECOMING 5-15 KTS
OVERNIGHT, THEN 15-25 KTS GUSTING UP TO 40 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 01/00Z THROUGH THURSDAY 03/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY UNDER VARIABLE MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS. AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VIS IN SHRASN, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WIND GUSTS
SW 30-40 KTS LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN GUSTS 30-45 KTS
WITH THE HIGHEST ALONG/NORTH OF A KFLG-KSOW LINE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE THEREAFTER, BECOMING SW 10-20 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH
GUSTING UP TO 40-50 MPH EACH AFTERNOON, STRONGEST FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 15-25% RESULTING IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ARIZONA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THEN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL DROP AS LOW AS 5000 FEET. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ MONDAY TO 2 AM MST /3 AM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR AZZ004-006-007-011>016-039-040.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM/LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page