046
FXUS65 KFGZ 312320
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
420 PM MST MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORT-WAVE, WITH AN AXIS NEAR THE CA/NV
BORDER, IS BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARIZONA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY JOIN THE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT MOST OF THE EXCITEMENT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON
WEDNESDAY.
A LARGER AND MORE IMPACTFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FUNNEL DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHWEST REGION BY MID-WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION BEING BROUGHT INTO OUR CWA, BUT THERE
STILL SEEMS TO BE DISCREPANCIES ON AMOUNTS AND MORE DETAILED
TIMING. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT A
SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE PUSH, ULTIMATELY LANDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2-5" FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000'. MORE
SPECIFICALLY THE MOGOLLON RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN 11 AM AND 5 PM MST ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY START EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DROP SNOW LEVELS TO 4500-5000', SO SEEING A FLURRY OR
LIGHT DUSTING AT LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT EVEN THEN, THE WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW SNOWFALL TO MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY. SINCE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF I-40 AND I-17, CONSIDER GIVING YOURSELF A FEW EXTRA MINUTES ON
WEDNESDAY FOR ANY TRAVEL.
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STICK AROUND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND POTENTIALLY PUT A CLOSED LOW
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
BUT THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THIS ALL WILL SHAPE
OUT. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 01/00Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 02/00Z
EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY, NEAR TERMINALS KFLG/KGCN. SPOTTY VIRGA OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SFC WINDS
SW10-20G25-35KTS OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING WESTERLY TUESDAY. GUSTS TO
45KTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN AZ.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 02/00Z THROUGH FRIDAY 04/00Z...AREAS MVFR AND
LOCALIZED IFR DUE TO SHSN/SHRA AND CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR AWAY
FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY. SFC WINDS GENERALLY SW10-20KTS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE DAYTIME HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30
MPH GUSTING TO 40-50 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, STRONGEST ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS DIMINISHING
TO 15-25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AND SPREADING AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TURNING MUCH COOLER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP AS LOW AS 4500 TO 5000 FEET. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20
MPH ON THURSDAY, TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR AZZ004-006-
007-009.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR AZZ011>017-
039-040.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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