501
FXUS65 KFGZ 010330
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY,
WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPDATE
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH
OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU, COCONINO PLATEAU, MOGOLLON RIM, AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. EVENING WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
FOR THESE AREAS, AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET ARRIVES. THESE STRONG WINDS PLUS VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ARE HINDERING NIGHTTIME COOLING, RESULTING IN MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN AZ ON TUESDAY, EXPECT
CONTINUED STRONG GUSTS THAT DROP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC FORCING UNDER THE
JET COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS DESPITE MODEST MOISTURE PROFILES.
LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS, IF ANY, WOULD BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREV DISCUSSION /420 PM MST/
A WEAK SHORT-WAVE, WITH AN AXIS NEAR THE CA/NV
BORDER, IS BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARIZONA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY JOIN THE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT MOST OF THE EXCITEMENT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON
WEDNESDAY.
A LARGER AND MORE IMPACTFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FUNNEL DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHWEST REGION BY MID-WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION BEING BROUGHT INTO OUR CWA, BUT THERE
STILL SEEMS TO BE DISCREPANCIES ON AMOUNTS AND MORE DETAILED
TIMING. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT A
SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE PUSH, ULTIMATELY LANDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2-5" FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000'. MORE
SPECIFICALLY THE MOGOLLON RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN 11 AM AND 5 PM MST ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY START EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DROP SNOW LEVELS TO 4500-5000', SO SEEING A FLURRY OR
LIGHT DUSTING AT LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT EVEN THEN, THE WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW SNOWFALL TO MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY. SINCE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF I-40 AND I-17, CONSIDER GIVING YOURSELF A FEW EXTRA MINUTES ON
WEDNESDAY FOR ANY TRAVEL.
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STICK AROUND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND POTENTIALLY PUT A CLOSED LOW
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
BUT THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THIS ALL WILL SHAPE
OUT. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 01/00Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 02/00Z
EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY, NEAR TERMINALS KFLG/KGCN. SPOTTY VIRGA OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SFC WINDS
SW10-20G25-35KTS OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING WESTERLY TUESDAY. GUSTS TO
45KTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN AZ.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 02/00Z THROUGH FRIDAY 04/00Z...AREAS MVFR AND
LOCALIZED IFR DUE TO SHSN/SHRA AND CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR AWAY
FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY. SFC WINDS GENERALLY SW10-20KTS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE DAYTIME HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS SLOWLY SHIFTING WESTERLY TUESDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COOLER WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES NORTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR TUESDAY. MUCH COLDER WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY
BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE WEEKEND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR AZZ004-006-
007-009.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR AZZ011>017-
039-040.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI/KONIECZNY
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON/MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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