584
FXUS65 KFGZ 011721
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1021 AM MST TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN BEFORE WARMING RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING, MOSTLY LIGHT. LOOKS LIKE AROUND AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW AROUND JACOB LAKE VIA ADOT CAMERAS. THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A FRONT
PUSHES IN. WE INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
FRONT, DOWN INTO THE FLAGSTAFF AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WIND PRODUCTS REMAIN UNTIL 7 PM MST AS STRONG GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. MAY NEED TO END THE
WESTERN ZONES EARLIER AS WINDS DROP BEHIND THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION /355 AM MST/...TODAY
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS THE JET MAX MOVES OVERHEAD AND A COLD
FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH
WINDS 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 7 PM MST/8 PM MDT. ONE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE WIND HEADLINES AS THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY, WHERE GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WE HAVE UPGRADED THIS ZONE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING, IN EFFECT UNTIL
7 PM MST/8 PM MDT. THE ADVISORY FOR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND GRAND
CANYON COUNTY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING THOUGH WINDS
15-25 MPH WITH GUST TO 40 MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION BUT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT PRESENT, WE SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF I-40 WITH THE MOST
LIKELY SPOTS TOWARDS THE AZ/UTAH BORDER THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AROUND A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OR
SO.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL
DEEPEN ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH CUTS
OFF AND MOVES SLOWLY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WE WILL SEE A SWATH OF
0.10-0.40 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME PRETTY COLD
AIR BEING DRAGGED INTO THE REGION, WE WILL ALSO SEE SNOW FALL,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL TO AROUND
4000 FEET SO DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY OR A FEW SNOWFLAKES
IF YOU ARE A LOWER ELEVATION. HOW MUCH WE SEE STICK TO THE GROUND
MAY DIFFER THAN THE FORECAST AMOUNTS AS THE SUN ANGLE IS HIGHER IN
EARLY APRIL THAN SAY IN JANUARY AND THE GROUND TEMPS HAVE HAD SOME
TIME TO WARM IN RECENT WEEKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF A 1-2" ARE POSSIBLE
DOWN TO 5000-5500 FEET WITH 2-5" ABOVE 7000 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL
START ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING AROUND MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT
AROUND SUNDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO HANG AROUND THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE WE START WARMING AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINING ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW EXITS.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 01/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 02/18Z
WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A KFLG-KRQE LINE FROM LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS, GUSTING UP
TO 50 KTS THROUGH 02Z, WITH LIGHTER WINDS RETURNING OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-SHSN COULD START ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KGCN-
KFLG-KSOW LINE AFTER 12Z. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 02/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 04/18Z...MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/SHSN BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 06Z
THURSDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
GREATER CHANCES AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS
ON WEDNESDAY, BECOMING LIGHTER ON THURSDAY. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS
COULD OCCUR NEAR STORM DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT WINDS FORECAST TO
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
COOLER, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE AREA-WIDE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 MPH (GUSTS POSSIBLE 40-50 MPH), SHIFTING WEST
THROUGH THE DAY, THEN BECOMING SOUTH 10-20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED COOLER CONDITIONS WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH ON THURSDAY BECOMING
NORTH 10-15 MPH FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ011>013-015>017-039-040.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ014.
PUBLIC...JJ/MEOLA
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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