405   
FXUS65 KFGZ 012010  
AFDFGZ  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
110 PM MST TUE APR 1 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING,    
WITH AN UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND   
SNOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS  
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  
  
  
   
DISCUSSION  
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT  
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WAS  
APPROACHING A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF-WINDOW ROCK LINE AT 1230 PM.  
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE  
CONTINUING, WITH GUSTS 40-55 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT, WIND GUSTS  
DROP OFF THE 30 MPH OR LESS. THERE IS ALSO SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND  
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT, THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS  
SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON.   
  
WEDNESDAY - THE NEXT COLDER/DEEPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO ARIZONA  
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, WITH SNOW LEVELS DIPPING TO 4500-5000  
FEET. THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE  
REGARDING AMOUNTS, THOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL  
LOOKING LIKE A GENERAL 2-5 INCH SNOWFALL ABOVE ABOUT 6000 FEET,  
THOUGH WITH THE SPRING SUN ANGLE AND WARMER GROUND CONDITIONS WE  
MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH ON THE GROUND AT ANY GIVEN TIME. WON'T ISSUE  
ANY WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, BUT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF   
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG I-40/I-17 LOOKS LIKE MID AFTERNOON  
WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING. ALSO LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR  
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO THAT WAS  
INCLUDED IN THE LATEST FORECASTS.  
  
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY,  
CONTINUING SOUTHWARD AND CLOSING OFF OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY  
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS  
GRADUALLY RISING TO AROUND 5500 FEET THURSDAY AND 6000 FEET  
FRIDAY. THURSDAY'S AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE 0.10" OR LESS OF  
PRECIPITATION AND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MORE  
CONVECTIVE, SO WHILE AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIGHT IN GENERAL, SOME  
LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD SEE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED HEAVIER  
SHOWERS. SOME TRAILING SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN  
EASTERN ARIZONA.  
  
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK - HIGH PRESSURE IS  
FORECAST TO BUILD IN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.  
  
  
   
AVIATION...TUESDAY 01/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 02/18Z  
WIDESPREAD  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITIES   
AND CEILINGS MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A KFLG-KRQE LINE FROM LIGHT  
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS, GUSTING UP   
TO 50 KTS THROUGH 02Z, WITH LIGHTER WINDS RETURNING OVERNIGHT.   
ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-SHSN COULD START ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KGCN-   
KFLG-KSOW LINE AFTER 12Z. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR  
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.   
  
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 02/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 04/18Z...MVFR/IFR  
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/SHSN BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 06Z   
THURSDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH  
GREATER CHANCES AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS  
ON WEDNESDAY, BECOMING LIGHTER ON THURSDAY. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS  
COULD OCCUR NEAR STORM DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT WINDS FORECAST TO   
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
  
  
   
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY  
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW   
SHOWERS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE   
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-  
SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH, BUT WIND GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE   
GUSTY/ERRATIC. MINIMUM RH VALUES LOOK TO BE 25-50% EACH AFTERNOON.   
  
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE   
WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY   
AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN BY SUNDAY, WITH LIMITED   
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN AZ. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP THROUGH   
THE PERIOD, 5-15 MPH, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR   
SHOWERS.  
  
  
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR   
AZZ011>013-015>017-039-040.  
  
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR   
AZZ014.  
  
  
  
  
  
PUBLIC...JJ  
AVIATION...KONIECZNY  
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY  
  
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
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