930
FXUS65 KFGZ 020330
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO OUR
AREA TODAY, AS WELL AS A DECENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS, HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. COLDER AND
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS A MUCH COLDER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SNOW
LEVELS AS LOW AS 4500-5000 FEET. MORE ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER BANDS
MAY PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, BUT MANY AREAS WILL JUST SEE
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS THAT MELT OFF.
AFTER THAT, THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT AND A CONTINUOUSLY
RECHARGING AND NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER ARIZONA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED, WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL DAYS OF
MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THESE SCENARIOS WELL AND THE OVERNIGHT IS
QUIET, NO NO SHORT TERM UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 02/00Z THROUGH THURSDAY 03/00Z
A FRONTAL
BAND BRINGING IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VIS IN SHRA/SHSN IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SE FROM KPRC-KSEZ-KINW. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY
DISSIPATING BY 03Z, THEN WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNS THROUGH 15Z. PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN THEREAFTER. WINDS ARE SW 20-30 KTS
GUSTING UP TO 45 KTS THROUGH 02Z, THEN LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE SW 10-20 KTS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 03/00Z THROUGH SATURDAY 05/00Z...MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/SHSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THEREAFTER, THEN GREATER CHANCES RETURN AFTER
18Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE W-SW 5-10 KTS ON THURSDAY, BECOMING N-NW
5-15 KTS ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VRB.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
10-20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, WEAKENING TO 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE GUSTY/ERRATIC. MINIMUM RH VALUES
LOOK TO BE 25-50% EACH AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN BY SUNDAY, WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN AZ. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP THROUGH
THE PERIOD, 5-15 MPH, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR
SHOWERS.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY/LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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