306
FXUS65 KFGZ 021805
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1105 AM MST WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE THIS
MORNING. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
YAVAPAI CO AND WEST OF FLAGSTAFF AS OF 945 AM, AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS (EVEN SOME LIGHTNING) WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF 1"+/HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES STILL ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR WILLIAMS TO FLAGSTAFF
AND I-17 FLAGSTAFF TO MUNDS PARK. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR THIS ARE
HIGHEST IN THAT AREA, BUT LOWER CHANCES EXIST IN MOST HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS. CHECK THE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.
PREV DISCUSSION /450 AM MST/...TODAY
A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA TODAY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NORTHERN THE ARIZONA, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
SHOWERS LOOK TO PRIMARILY DEVELOP IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWER COVERAGE THEN
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INTENSITY LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE, AND
CONSEQUENTLY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, MOVES INTO THE REGION. DURING THIS
PERIOD, SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH 0.5-1.0 IN/HR WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE RATES IN EXCESS OF 1.0 IN/HR MAINLY AROUND THE
WILLIAMS, FLAGSTAFF, AND MUNDS PARK AREA PER 00Z HREF GUIDANCE.
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO LARGELY BE AROUND THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ABOVE
6500 FEET WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND
5000 FEET, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT ACCUMULATIONS, AS THE GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL INHIBIT
EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
AT TIMES COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERPOWER THE WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES.
ALL AND ALL, THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL SNOW DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.
THOSE TRAVELING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION GOING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CAN RESULT
IN SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OUT OVER ARIZONA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
SHOWERY, SO IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY, THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL ALSO DECREASE. SUDDEN VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL STILL POSE A HAZARD TO
TRAVELERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY BEGINS TO START
MOVING AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE GOING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO ARIZONA FROM THE EAST. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO ENSUE AS A RESULT.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 02/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 03/18Z
RANGING
BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR. SHOWERS ARE OF CONVECTIVE NATURE TODAY WHICH
COULD CAUSE RAPID CHANGES TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME MVFR-IFR CLOUD DECKS FORMING AT
KFLG AND KGCN. WINDS SW 10-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON, CALMING TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER ABOUT 03Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 03/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 05/18Z...VFR-MVFR,
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HANG
AROUND THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS W-SW 5-10KTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, N-NW
5-15KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY, BECOMING SCATTERED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY, WEAKENING TO 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS NEAR
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE GUSTY/ERRATIC. MINIMUM RH VALUES 25 TO 50%
EACH AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN AZ. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
5 TO 15 MPH, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ/HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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