853
FXUS65 KFGZ 022015
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
115 PM MST WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW INTO THIS EVENING AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
A COLD LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN US THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN
ARIZONA HEADED EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SO FAR FROM
YAVAPAI COUNTY UP TO THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO WESTERN COCONINO
COUNTY. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE
VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CAUSE SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY AS
WELL AS SNOW COVERED ROADS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET LATER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT THE SNOW
FROM ACCUMULATING ON THE ROADWAYS SO FAR, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS
SHOWERS GET HEAVIER AND THE LATE AFTERNOON SUN ANGLES GET LOWER.
BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE STATE AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES TO NEAR
FOUR CORNERS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. A
GENERAL 2-5" SNOWFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND THE NORTHEAST AZ HIGH
TERRAIN. THURSDAY - ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THIS ONE, SO
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE TO 2" ABOVE 6000 FEET AND
MAY MELT OFF BETWEEN SHOWERS. THE LOW REMAINS OVER OUR REGION
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 6500 FEET. FINALLY BY SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE
AZ/NM STATE LINE. STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 02/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 03/18Z
RANGING
BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR. SHOWERS ARE OF CONVECTIVE NATURE TODAY WHICH
COULD CAUSE RAPID CHANGES TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME MVFR-IFR CLOUD DECKS FORMING AT
KFLG AND KGCN. WINDS SW 10-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON, CALMING TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER ABOUT 03Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 03/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 05/18Z...VFR-MVFR,
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HANG
AROUND THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS W-SW 5-10KTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, N-NW
5-15KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE AREA BOTH DAYS. BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN
OR SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY IS THE WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAUS, WITH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SEEING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN OR SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL BE S-SW 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY, SWITCHING TO N-NW 5-15 MPH ON
FRIDAY. SOME BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
SHOWERS. MINIMUM RH VALUES 35 TO 60% EACH AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HANGS
AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE SEEING
THE BEST CHANCES. THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY ONWARD AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TOWARDS MIDWEEK. WINDS N 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, W-SW 5 TO
15 MPH MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page