440
FXUS65 KFGZ 022357
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
457 PM MST WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW INTO THIS EVENING AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
A COLD LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN US THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN
ARIZONA HEADED EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SO FAR FROM
YAVAPAI COUNTY UP TO THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO WESTERN COCONINO
COUNTY. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE
VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CAUSE SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY AS
WELL AS SNOW COVERED ROADS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET LATER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT THE SNOW
FROM ACCUMULATING ON THE ROADWAYS SO FAR, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS
SHOWERS GET HEAVIER AND THE LATE AFTERNOON SUN ANGLES GET LOWER.
BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE STATE AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES TO NEAR
FOUR CORNERS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. A
GENERAL 2-5" SNOWFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND THE NORTHEAST AZ HIGH
TERRAIN. THURSDAY - ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THIS ONE, SO
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE TO 2" ABOVE 6000 FEET AND
MAY MELT OFF BETWEEN SHOWERS. THE LOW REMAINS OVER OUR REGION
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 6500 FEET. FINALLY BY SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE
AZ/NM STATE LINE. STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 03/00Z THROUGH FRIDAY 04/00Z
WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE SHRA/SHSN ARE BRINGING PERIODS RAPIDLY CHANGING BETWEEN
VFR-LIFR. SHOWERS BRINGING THESE CONDITIONS WILL TAPER OFF DURING
THE NIGHT, BUT MVFR-IFR CIGS COULD LINGER. ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN
AFTER 18Z, BRINGING FURTHER PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR. AFTERNOON WINDS ARE
QUICKLY DYING OFF, BECOMING VRB LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN W-SW 5-
10 KTS TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 04/00Z THROUGH SUNDAY 06/00Z...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHRA/SHSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FURTHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH FLIGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WINDS ARE N-NW 5-15 KTS ON FRIDAY, THEN N 10-20 KTS ON
SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VRB OR TERRAIN DRIVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE AREA BOTH DAYS. BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN
OR SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY IS THE WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAUS, WITH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SEEING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN OR SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL BE S-SW 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY, SWITCHING TO N-NW 5-15 MPH ON
FRIDAY. SOME BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
SHOWERS. MINIMUM RH VALUES 35 TO 60% EACH AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HANGS
AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE SEEING
THE BEST CHANCES. THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY ONWARD AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TOWARDS MIDWEEK. WINDS N 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, W-SW 5 TO
15 MPH MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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